QE: secondo round!

Cosenza (Italy), 4 Novembre 2010

[Ringrazio il blog "Rischio Calcolato" per la pubblicazione di questo post sul sito web http://rischio-calcolato.blogspot.com/2010/11/qe-secondo-round.html]

Reazioni ampiamente negative alla nuova decisione della Federal Reserve USA di autorizzare un nuovo pacchetto di aiuti all'economia, attraverso l'acquisto di obbligazioni per ulteriori 600 miliardi di Dollari USA. Il piano prevede acquisti di obbligazioni governative di lunga data fino al secondo trimestre del 2011, per un ammontare mensile di 75 miliardi di Dollari USA (vedi Bloomberg 3/11 "Fed to Buy $600 Billion in Treasuries to Aid Growth (Update1)".

La decisione, peraltro ampiamente prevista nei giori scorsi dal mercato, sta sollevando una marea di critiche, così motivate:

• Rischi crescenti di inflazione nelle economie emergenti e aumento dei costi delle materie prime, con possibilità di trasmissione alle economie avanzate (CNBC 4/11 "Risk of Inflation, Potential 'Commodity Shock': Analysts"): "Rising inflation in emerging markets, coupled with marked increases in commodity prices, could hurt developed economies, as companies struggle to keep input costs down while seeing precious investment dollars heading overseas, analysts told CNBC. [...] But the liquidity generated by the Fed's quantitative easing does not necessarily mean extra liquidity for the domestic U.S. economy, Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas, told CNBC. [...] "What is happening is you create dollars, these dollars don't want to say in the United States. So you have a wave of dollar liquidity moving for example into the Hong Kong real estate market," he said. "We are creating U.S. dollar liquidity in the wrong places in the world." That liquidity can have a negative impact in emerging market economies because of its inflationary pressures, Redeker said. Those pressures will transfer to developed countries, where some companies can pass on the costs via higher prices to consumers; but that's not necessarily good for the economy overall as consumers have to pay more, Malmgren said".
•  Maggiore difficoltà di una exit-strategy della Banca Centrale Europea (Bloomberg 4/11 "Trichet’s Exit Faces Roadblock as Fed Clouds Outlook (Update1)": "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is making it harder for Jean-Claude Trichet to lead the European Central Bank out of crisis mode. Last night’s decision by the Fed to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to bolster the U.S. economy may force the ECB to delay the withdrawal of its own stimulus measures, economists said. The Fed’s second round of so-called quantitative easing risks driving the euro higher, threatening Europe’s export-led recovery. [...]. The euro-region economy is showing signs of weakening after expanding at the fastest pace in four years in the second quarter. [...]. In Europe, ECB policy makers from Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Austria, Italy and the Netherlands have warned against keeping interest rates too low for too long and said further exit steps may be taken in the first quarter of next year. [...]. Bundesbank President Axel Weber has also called for an end to the ECB’s bond-purchase program, arguing its risks outweigh any benefits. Investors have continued to dump Irish, Portuguese and Greek government bonds even after the ECB started buying them on the secondary market in May to ease tensions. The premium on Irish 10-year bonds over German bunds stood at 505 basis points at 8:53 a.m. in Frankfurt, Portugal’s spread was at 386 basis points and Greece’s reached 838 basis points".

Nonostante le critiche, gli USA stanno traendo numerosi benefici da questa politica di quantitative easing: un primo beneficio è rappresentato dal fatto che al denaro immesso nell'economia dalla Banca Centrale corrispondono maggiori entrate fiscali per il Governo USA. In secondo luogo, la Banca Centrale stessa ha la possibilità di acquistare titoli garantiti dal Governo ad un prezzo minore di quello di emissione. Terzo, parte del denaro immesso nell'economia finisce nel mercato azionario, aiutando almeno in parte l'economia USA (vedi grafico qui sotto):

Intanto, sul fronte valutario, l'Euro vola mentre il Dollaro USA continua a deprezzarsi ampiamente nei confronti delle principali valute internazionali (vedi di seguito tabelle, fonte FAZ)

"Ampio movimento di deprezzamento del Dollaro USA

al 4 Novembre 2010, tassi di variazione percentuali" 

"Il Dollaro si deprezza già da settimane su vasta scala. Tassi di variazione percentuali dal 7 Giugno 2010 al 4 Novembre 2010"

Interessante notare che lo Yuan cinese continua a rimanere saldamente ancorato al Dollaro, per cui è in dubbio che un deprezzamento del Dollaro USA, che non dovesse comportare alcuna variazione nei "prezzi relativi" dei beni, possa avere dei benefici effetti sull'economia statunitense.

AGGIORNAMENTI

5 Novembre 2010: Alcuni interessanti articoli critici nei confronti della decisione della FED, apparsi sulla stampa internazionale. Anche il Governo Cinese ha parole dure, sostenendo che le proposte USA di imporre dei target numerici alle economie nazionali per evitare gli squilibri macroeconomici non possono che rimandare la memoria ai tempi dell'economia pianificata. Insomma, lezioni di economia di mercato dal...Governo Cinese!

1. Bloomberg 5/11 "China Says Fed Stimulus Risks Hurting Global Recovery (Update1)": "China said the U.S. Federal Reserve needs to explain this week’s decision to purchase bonds to pump money into the world’s biggest economy or risk undermining the global recovery. “Many countries are worried about the impact of the policy on their economies,” Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said at a press briefing in Beijing today. “It would be appropriate for someone to step forward and give us an explanation, otherwise international confidence in the recovery and growth of the global economy might be hurt. [...]. Cui also dismissed a U.S. proposal to push for targets to shrink current-account gaps and address global trade imbalances as “missing the point.” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has suggested deficit or surplus targets of less than 4 percent of gross domestic product. “The artificial setting of a numerical target cannot but remind us of the days of a planned economy,” Cui said, adding that the U.S. and China are capable of overcoming difficulties in their relationship.[...]. Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today that while quantitative easing in the U.S. is understandable because of domestic economic conditions, the policy may not be good for the world. Conflicts between the dollar’s role at home and abroad could raise questions about the international monetary system, Zhou said at a forum in Beijing. Several Asian governments yesterday said the Fed’s expanded monetary stimulus threatened to escalate an inflow of capital into the region. China will seek to limit the effects of “abnormal” capital flows, Zhou said today. The International Monetary Fund last month urged Asia- Pacific nations to withdraw policy stimulus to head off asset- price pressures, as their world-leading economies draw capital because of low interest rates in the U.S. and other advanced countries. Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin said yesterday that Fed quantitative easing is “uncontrolled” money printing, and Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan cited the U.S. as pursuing a “weak-dollar policy.” The Hong Kong Monetary Authority warned the city’s property prices could surge and Malaysia’s central bank chief said nations are prepared to act jointly on capital flows. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week raised its 12-month target for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index of equities, saying the city has the most to gain from extra liquidity released by quantitative easing programs and China’s growth".
2. Bloomberg 5/11 "Fed's Bernanke `Doesn't Understand' Economics, Jim Rogers Says": "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s decision to pump a further $600 billion into the economy shows his grasp of economics is weak, said investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. “Dr. Bernanke unfortunately does not understand economics, he does not understand currencies, he does not understand finance,” Rogers, 68, said in a lecture at Oxford University’s Balliol College yesterday. “All he understands is printing money.” “His whole intellectual career has been based on the study of printing money,” he said. “Give the guy a printing press, he’s going to run it as fast as he can".
3. Die Welt 5/11 "USA riskieren mit Dollarflut gefährliche Blasen": "Die US-Notenbank Fed flutet die Märkte mit Geld. Weltweit steigen die Kurse von Aktien und Rohstoffen. Den Märkten droht eine Überhitzung. [...]. Am Mittwoch Abend hatte die Fed beschlossen, die Welt mit weiteren 600 Mrd. Dollar zu fluten. Sie kauft bis Juni kommenden Jahres Staatsanleihen für diesen Betrag auf. Da die Zentralbank letztlich ein Teil des Staates ist, erwirbt sie damit praktisch ihre eigenen Anleihen – sie druckt also Geld. In der verniedlichenden Sprache der Banker heißt dies dann „quantitative Lockerung“, englisch: „quantitative easing“. Und weil dies schon die zweite Runde in diesem Spiel ist, wurde die Abkürzung QE2 für die jüngste Aktion der Fed erfunden. [...]. Genau das ist es jedoch auch, was Notenbank-Chef Ben Bernanke mit seinen Maßnahmen erreichen will. „Auf den Punkt gebracht funktioniert QE2 dadurch, dass die Vermögenspreise hoch- und die US-Währung nach unten getrieben werden, dadurch die Inflationserwartungen steigen und so wiederum die realen Zinsen sinken“, sagt Joachim Fels, ein führender Ökonom bei der US-Investmentbank Morgan Stanley. Letztlich soll auf diese Weise die lahmende Wirtschaft jenseits des Atlantiks endlich wieder auf Wachstumskurs gebracht werden. [...]. Doch nun könnte es erst richtig losgehen. Denn das Geld landet ja nicht in den Taschen der Arbeitnehmer und Konsumenten, es geht vor allem an Banken und Investoren. Und diese kaufen davon keine Waren, sondern legen es an. Das Geld strömt also weiter vor allem an die Finanzmärkte. Die Aktienkurse dürften daher weiter steigen, und hier vor allem die Kurse in den Schwellenländern. Denn diese Länder stehen vor einem Dilemma: Eigentlich sind die Leitzinsen in vielen dieser Staaten angesichts der sehr hohen Wachstumsraten viel zu niedrig. Sie können die Zinsen aber nicht anheben, weil dies wiederum zu einer noch schnelleren Aufwertung ihrer Währungen gegenüber dem Dollar führen würde als es ohnehin bereits der Fall ist. Und dies wäre gefährlich für ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Indien machte am Dienstag eine Ausnahme, als es die Leitzinsen leicht anhob, auch China hatte bereits vor zwei Wochen den Leitzins minimal erhöht. Auf breiter Front dürften die Zinsen in diesen Ländern aber eben nicht steigen. „In der Konsequenz wird es zu einer Vermögenspreisblase in den Schwellenländern kommen, vor allem in Asien“, warnt Andrew Garthwaite, Chef-Anlagestratege der Credit Suisse. Aber nicht nur in den Schwellenländern drohen neue Blasen. „Die zusätzliche Liquidität könnte auch in die Rohstoffmärkte fließen“, sagt Eugen Weinberg, Rohstoff-Experte der Commerzbank, „und somit zu dauerhaft überhöhten Ölpreisen führen.“ Schon jetzt habe sich dieser Preis deutlich von seinem fundamental gerechtfertigten Niveau entfernt. „Das sehen wir eher bei 70 Dollar“, so Weinberg. [...]. Schlecht sind die Aussichten zudem auch für Firmen, die steigende Rohstoffkosten aufgrund mangelnder Preissetzungsmacht nicht an die Kunden weitergeben können. Dazu zählt Garthwaite beispielsweise FIAT, den französischen Einzelhändler Carrefour oder den Industriekonzern Alstom. Und die entscheidende Frage ist, ob das exzessive Drucken von Geld langfristig nicht allen schadet. Was passiert, wenn die neuen Blasen in den Schwellenländern oder an den Rohstoffmärkten irgendwann platzen? Darüber machen sich derzeit jedoch die wenigsten Börsianer Gedanken. Sie sind jetzt erst mal in Feierlaune". 

6 Novembre 2010: Altre critiche, questa volta interne alla stessa FED, nonostante la strenue difesa del Presidente Ben Bernanke: CNBC "Bernanke defends new Fed plan to boost economy": "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the Fed's new $600 billion program to aid the economy on Saturday, rejecting concerns that it will spur runaway inflation. Critics, including some Fed officials, fear that all the money being injected into the economy could ignite inflation or speculative bubbles in the prices of bonds or commodities. Speaking to a conference on the Georgia coast, Bernanke said the new program, announced Wednesday, won't push inflation to "super ordinary" levels. The Fed will buy $600 billion worth of government bonds in a bid to make loans cheaper and get Americans to spend more. Doing so would help the economy and prompt companies to boost hiring. The economy hasn't been growing fast enough to reduce unemployment, which has been stuck at a high of 9.6 percent for three straight months. The Fed worries that high unemployment, lackluster wage gains and still-weak home values will weigh on consumer spending, a major drive of overall economic activity. Because companies are loath to raise retail prices in this climate, inflation has been running at very low levels. That gives the Fed leeway to launch the new aid program. Earlier in the week, Bernanke expressed confidence that once the economy is on firm footing, the Fed will be able to smoothly soak up all that money without harming the economy and unleashing inflation".

Matteo Olivieri

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