Cosa avverrà dopo il QE2? Solo il tempo lo dirà...

Cosenza (Italy), 24 Febbraio 2011

In un interesante articolo di oggi, intitolato "Quantitative Easing and America’s Economic Rebound", il Prof. Martin Feldstein (Harvard) prova a ragionare su cosa avverrà dopo la conclusione del programma FED di QE2, prevista per Giugno 2011.

Il Prof. Feldstein porta 3 argomenti:

1. Il recente aumento della spesa privata statunitense, registrata nell'aumento del PIL USA del 4 Trimestre del 2010 è essenzialmente dovuta ad una diminuzione del risparmio privato, e non ad un aumento dei redditi o a maggiore occupazione (cfr. "the acceleration of growth in consumer spending accounted for nearly 100% of the increase in GDP, with the rise in durable spending accounting for almost half of that increase. The rise in consumer spending was not, however, due to higher employment or faster income growth. Instead, it reflected a fall in the personal saving rate. Household saving had risen from less than 2% of after-tax incomes in 2007 to 6.3% in the spring of 2010. But then the saving rate fell by a full percentage point, reaching 5.3% in December 2010.");
2. Anche se non vi è una certezza assoluta del fatto che la ripresa degli indici di Wall Street sia addebitabile alla politica di QE2 della FED, la sequenza temporale di eventi lo lascia supporre (cfr. "To be sure, there is no proof that QE2 led to the stock-market rise, or that the stock-market rise caused the increase in consumer spending. But the timing of the stock-market rise, and the lack of any other reason for a sharp rise in consumer spending, makes that chain of events look very plausible);
3. Il rapporto tra aumento dei consumi e aumento dei prezzi azionari è stato di circa 4 a 100, ovvero per ogni 100 Dollari di maggiore ricchezza creata dalla Borsa, solo 4 Dollari sono stati spesi in maggiori consumi (cfr. "The magnitude of the relationship between the stock-market rise and the jump in consumer spending also fits the data. Since share ownership (including mutual funds) of American households totals approximately $17 trillion, a 15% rise in share prices increased household wealth by about $2.5 trillion. The past relationship between wealth and consumer spending implies that each $100 of additional wealth raises consumer spending by about four dollars, so $2.5 trillion of additional wealth would raise consumer spending by roughly $100 billion.")

La conclusione logica del Prof. Feldstein è ferrea: al termine del programma di QE2, previsto per Giugno 2011, l'economia sarà effettivamente in grado di sostenere da sola la creazione di ricchezza ad un tasso di risparmio tale da attivare nuovi consumi?

Vedi "None of this appears to augur well for 2011. There is no reason to expect the stock market to keep rising at the rapid pace of 2010. Quantitative easing is scheduled to end in June 2011, and the Fed is not expected to continue its massive purchases of Treasury bonds after that. Without that increase in stock-market wealth, will the saving rate continue to decline and the pace of consumer spending continue to rise more rapidly than GDP? Will the strong economic growth at the end of 2010 be enough to propel more spending by households and businesses in 2011, even though house prices continue to fall and the labor market remains weak? And does artificial support for the bond market and equities mean that we are looking at asset-price bubbles that may come to an end before the year is over? Only time will tell, of course. But these are the questions that investors and policymakers alike should be asking".

AGGIORNAMENTI

Venerdi 25 Febbraio 2011: Di diverso avviso l'articolo CNBC 25/2 "Pro Traders: QE2 Coming to an Abrupt End?", in cui la recente volatilità viene ricondotta piuttosto a voci di una fine anticipata del programma di QE2. Ad accreditare queste voci, alcune recenti dichiarazioni di membri del condiglio direttivo della FED.

Vedi: "in other words QE2 may be coming to an end ahead of schedule. As you can see from this chart the S&P began moving sharply higher in late summer, when talk of QE2 first hit the market. The sudden and sharp shift in market sentiment follows commentary from St. Louis Fed Reserve President James Bullard who’s largely seen as a centrist. Speaking at a Chamber of Commerce breakfast held at Western Kentucky University he said, "The natural debate now is whether to complete the program or to taper off to a somewhat lower level of assets". And to make the issue that much more volatile for traders, Bullard also said that he expects the topic to be discussed at a Fed meeting in March. He said he would be ready to scale back the program then. "If it was just me, I would make small changes to account for the fact that the outlook is better than it was at the time of the November decision," he told reporters after his speech. And it’s not just Bullard, Charles Plosser, the head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says much the same. "Should economic prospects continue to strengthen, I would not rule out changing the policy stance to bring QE2 to an early close," Plosser said".

Mercoledi 2 Marzo 2011: Recenti dichiarazioni del Presidente FED Ben Bernanke sembrano confermare una conclusione del programma QE2 secondo la tempistica ufficiale (Giugno 2011) e non prima, come da qualcuno sostenuto. In particolare, i rischi di deflazione sembrano essere scongiurati e al momento i rischi che le tensioni nei paesi esportatori di petrolio possano trasformarsi in aumenti generalizzati dei prezzi, sembrano poco plausibili.

Vedi CNBC 1/3 "Bernanke: Surge in Oil Prices Not Hurting US Economy—Yet": "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a fairly upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy Tuesday, saying the recent surge in oil prices is unlikely to have a major effect on growth or inflation as long as higher prices do not become sustained. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee he saw increasing evidence that the economic recovery has enough momentum to become self-supporting. But job growth remains far too anemic, he said, indicating the Fed was unlikely to cut short its $600 billion bond-buying stimulus. "We do see some grounds for optimism about the job market over the next few quarters," Bernanke said, citing a steep recent decline in the jobless rate among other factors. Bernanke said downside risks to growth had diminished and, for the first time, stated that the risk of deflation was now "negligible." The threat of deflation, a downward spiral in wages and prices that could derail the economy, was a key justification for the Fed's bond-buying spree. "It's encouraging to see that the risk of deflation is moderating according to the Fed," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington".

Matteo Olivieri

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