Cosenza (Italy), 3 Febbraio 2011
Mentre i mercati finanziari sembrano aver assimilato l'idea che il programma di quantitative easing della FED si concluderà a fine Giugno, alcuni commenti rilasciati da membri del comitato decisionale della banca centrale statunitense sembrano suggerire l'idea che la partita sia tutt'altro che chiusa, e la discussione se il programma debba essere riproposto, potrebbe entrare nell'agenda dei lavori del prossimo incontro del comitato.
L'articolo CNBC 2/2 "‘Too Early to Declare Victory’ Fed May Not End Bond Buying" è il primo che leggo in tal senso.
In particolare: "Just because the U.S. economic recovery is looking up, don't think the Federal Reserve will necessarily stop its bond buying after its latest $600 billion program. While financial markets have largely dismissed the possibility the Fed could extend the program past its end-June sunset date, officials are still wrestling with whether more might need to be done. The idea of laying groundwork for an exit from the central bank's extraordinarily easy monetary policy has not yet entered into the equation. "It is too early to declare victory," Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday. Kansas City Fed leader Thomas Hoenig said on Tuesday another round of bond purchases could be discussed at the Fed's next policy meeting in mid-March if the recovery flags. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke makes a rare on-the-record media appearance on Thursday. He could provide more clarity on whether the Fed is prepared to buy more bonds on top of a current $2.3 billion total if the U.S. jobs market fails to heal. That the debate has yet to shift away from whether more bond buying might be needed indicates how much farther the Fed thinks the recovery must run before it is time to tighten policy".
Al momento la curva dei rendimenti USA non sembra aver risentito della notizia, come dimostra la seguente tabella, che mette a confronto la c.d. "yield curve" statunitense di oggi con quella di una settimana fa.
Come si vede, la curva sta diventando leggermente più ripida per scadenze superiori ad un anno, il che vuol dire che la ripresa delle aspettative inflazionistiche negli USA dovrebbe cominciare a partire da quella data. Tuttavia, è interessante osservare pure, che la scadenza del programma di QE2 è prevista per Giugno 2011, mentre la ripresa dell'inflazione è attesa all'incirca per Gennaio 2012: dunque, al momento i mercati stanno contando su un intervallo di circa 6 mesi tra la fine del programma di QE2 e la ripresa dell'inflazione. Questo vuol anche dire che qualora venisse completato il programma di QE2, la FED avrebbe circa 6 mesi di tempo disponibili per ritirare moneta dal mercato senza aumentare le aspettative di inflazione.
Come e perchè ciò si dimostrerà possibile, non è ancora dato saperlo, ma una cosa è certa: se il "pianerottolo" dei rendimenti tra 1 mese ed 1 anno dovesse allungarsi, vorrà dire che i mercati avranno assimilato l'idea che il quantitative easing durerà molto più a lungo del previsto.
Giovedi 3 Febbraio 2011: Proprio di oggi le dichiarazioni del Presidente FED Ben Bernanke, secondo cui la situazione dell'economia è ancora troppo fragile per poter pensare che non si abbia più bisogno dell'aiuto della banca centrale statunitense. E aggiunge che ci vorranno anni e anni prima che la situazione occupazionale torni a livelli "normali".
Ecco ampi stralci dell'articolo CNBC 3/2 "Bernanke: Economic Recovery Still Needs Fed's Help": "The U.S. economic recovery still needs help from the Federal Reserve despite signs of improvement, the central bank's chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday. The Fed chairman provided a modestly more rosy outlook for the world's largest economy than he has done in recent appearances, citing gains in household spending, improved confidence, and stepped up bank lending as signs 2011 may bring stronger growth than 2010. "Although economic growth will probably increase this year, we expect the unemployment rate to remain stubbornly above, and inflation to remain stubbornly below, the levels that Federal Reserve policymakers have judged to be consistent over the longer term with our mandate," he said in an appearance at the National Press Club in Washington. The event marks the second time Bernanke has spoken at the Press Club and taken questions from reporters afterwards. He said the central bank is considering holding more regular press conferences as part of improving its communications with the public. His comments on the economy on Thursday suggest a Fed that believes it has plenty of time to let its policies boost growth and pull down a high unemployment rate before it needs to worry about tightening financial conditions to keep any inflation in check. (...) The hard hit job market shows some grounds for optimism, but modest growth and cautious hiring suggest that it will be several years before the jobless rate returns to a more normal level, Bernanke said. "Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established," he said. (...) Bernanke played down worries that recent commodity price rises pose an inflation threat. "Overall inflation remains quite low," he said. U.S. Treasury bond prices extended losses after Bernanke's comments. The Fed in November launched a new round of bond-buying, to be completed by mid-year, to support a recovery that appeared to be flagging. The U.S. central bank had already bought $1.7 trillion worth of longer-term assets to provide further stimulus for the economy after cutting benchmark short-term rates to near zero in December 2008. The Fed chairman defended the central bank's controversial bond buying program, saying its benefits are evident from a range of financial market metrics. He cited higher stock prices and less volatility in equities markets, and narrower spreads between riskier and less risky corporate bonds. Bernanke is due to appear before the House of Representatives budget panel to discuss fiscal issues next week. He urged Congress to take steps to cut the federal budget deficit to take the budget off an "unsustainable" path").
Segnalo inoltre l'articolo Reuters 3/2 "Bernanke warns of catastrophe if debt limit not raised", che riporta le argomentazioni del Presidente FED Ben Bernanke volte a favore l'autorizzazione da parte del Congresso USA di un aumento del livello del debito pubblico. Poichè l'attuale limite massimo di spesaverrà raggiunto tra Marzo e Aprile, occorre - a suo avviso - prendere delle decisioni immediate al riguardo, per non dover ridimensionare i programmi dell'Amministrazione-Obama a favore dell'economia.
Allo stesso tempo, il Presidente FED Bernanke sollecita a mettere in essere un programma credibile di tagli al deficit statale.
Insomma, il messaggio sembra chiaro: fate meno debito in futuro, ma autorizzate più debito adesso...
Vedi: "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday issued a stern warning to Republican lawmakers that delays in raising the United States' $14.3 trillion debt limit could have "catastrophic" consequences. "Beyond a certain point ... the United States would be forced into a position of defaulting on its debt. And the implications of that on our financial system, our fiscal policy and our economy would be catastrophic," he told the National Press Club. Bernanke coupled his warning with a call for the Obama administration and Congress to put in place a credible plan to curb future budget deficits. (...) Some Republican leaders intend to use the need to raise the statutory debt ceiling as leverage for spending cuts. The Obama administration has said the nation would likely hit the limit between early April and late May. If Congress does not raise the limit in a timely way, the government could be forced to scale back operations. A failure to lift the limit could raise the specter of a first-ever U.S. debt default and push interest rates up sharply. Financial markets have not yet shown any nervousness over the debt limit, which has typically been raised after political grumbling, and Bernanke said the chances of a default were "very remote". Still, his comments echoed dire warnings issued by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other Obama administration officials, who have also said failure to raise the debt ceiling could be "catastrophic". The Fed chairman called on lawmakers not to hold the issue hostage to the contentious debate over how best to rein in record budget gaps. "I would very much urge Congress not to focus on the debt limit as being the bargaining chip in this discussion, but rather to address directly the spending and tax issues that we have to deal with in order to make progress on this fiscal situation," Bernanke said".
9 Febbraio 2011: Vorrei segnalare il seguente articolo Reuters 8/2 "Wednesday Look Ahead: Fed Under Fire as Markets Question Easing", in cui ho trovato un commento che va in direzione di quanto da me sostenuto nell'articolo: "(...) The curve is moving parallel. It's not like the curve is steepening. Everything is moving. We're moving to a higher interest rate paradigm. it's not a real inflation scare or a Fed hike scare," Ader said".
In altre parole, qualcuno comincia ad osservare che la curva dei rendimenti ("yield curve") piuttosto che diventare più ripida, si sta semplicemente muovendo in modo parallelo. Segno forse che il "pianerottolo" tra 1 mese ed 1 anno si sta allungando?
10 Febbraio 2011: Altri indizi si aggiungono all'idea che il programma di QE2 possa essere effettivamente prolungato. Questa almeno è l'opinione comune all'indomani dell'audizione del Presidente FED Ben Bernanke al Congresso USA. Ecco l'articolo Reuters del 9/2 "Bernanke warns against steep budget cuts": "Bernanke offered few clues into whether the Fed might extend its controversial policy of buying $600 billion in government bonds beyond its June deadline, nor did he signal any inclination to cut the program short. The Fed launched the bond-buying plan in November in an attempt to keep long-term borrowing costs down and support a fragile economic rebound. Acknowledging renewed momentum in the economy, Bernanke said a drop in the jobless rate to 9 percent in January from 9.8 percent in November, the biggest two-month decline since 1958, was "grounds for optimism". However, he said hiring is still anemic and noted that the economy has made up just over one million of the more than eight million jobs lost during the recession. "This gain was ... not enough to significantly erode the wide margin of slack that remains in our labor market," he said. "Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established".
Mercoledi 2 Marzo 2011: Il CEO di PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian, si dice sicuro he non ci sarà nessun ulteriore programma di quantitative easing. I costi del programma infatti starebbero cominciando a superare i benefici.
Vedi CNBC 1/3 "Cost of Fed Actions Starting to Offset Benefits: El-Erian":
"Extending the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies would be a mistake for an economy that badly needs to learn how to live without artificial stimulus, Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC. As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his semi-annual policy update to Congress, El-Erian said the central bank ought to be weighing how it will exit the second leg of its multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing program, often called QE2. El-Erian used an automotive analogy to demonstrate what he thinks should be Bernanke's position. "Think of your car having stalled and someone comes along with jumper cables and starts it. At some point, you have to take the cables off and see whether the car will drive," he said. "The reality is if we go to QE3 we're going to find very quickly that the costs and risks of these unconventional policies are going to offset what the benefits are."
Matteo Olivieri
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