Tutti in attesa della decisione BCE di questa settimana!

Cosenza (Italy), 4 Aprile 2011

Nel leggere i giornali di oggi, ho trovato molto interessante come tutti, ma proprio tutti, si dicano convinti che giovedi prossimo, la BCE alzerà i tassi di interesse. La posizione fa seguito ai commenti dello scorso mese di Marzo, allora generalmente interpretati come segno di un imminente aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Ho selezionato alcuni articoli che lasciano intendere ciò:

1. CNBC 3/4 "Three Central Banks Moving in Three Different Directions": "[...] On Thursday, the European Central Banklooks all but certain to become the first to shift interest rates higher as it tries to tame rising inflation".
2. FAZ 3/4 "Die Woche der Zinswende": "Die Zeit des billigen Geldes neigt sich im Euro-Raum dem Ende zu. Die Märkte reagieren gelassen auf die absehbare Zinserhöhung. Zwar ist die Nervosität gestiegen - doch bislang begrenzen sich die Schwierigkeiten auf unmittelbar betroffene Märkte".
3. CNBC 4/4 "ECB to Make PIG of a Decision": "The ECB is this week expected to lift rates by 25 basis points in a bid to reign in inflation despite ongoing fears over the financial health of Portugal, Ireland and Greece".
4. CNBC 4/4 "The Fed Is on 'Different Monetary Planet': Economist": "At a time when the ECB is expected to follow the lead of many emerging market central banks and raise rates, the US central bank is a long way from hiking rates as it instead debates when, and at what pace, to end quantitative easing, the easy money policy it put in place in response to the financial crisis".

L'argomento giustificativo è sempre lo stesso: poichè le attese di inflazione e l'inflazione corrente in Europa è maggiore del target fissato dalla BCE al 2% (vedi tabella qui sotto, fonte FAZ), si rende necessario un aumento dei tassi.

Personalmente non sono di questa idea, ed ho già espresso il mio pensiero nel recente articolo LEAF 8/3 "Alcune notazioni su bond e inflazione europea...".

Qui aggiungo che l'Euro è attualmente sopravvalutato rispetto al Dollaro USA, e pertanto, ogni aumento dei tassi di interesse, porterebbe ad un ulteriore apprezzamento nei confronti del Dollaro (vedi tabella seguente, fonte FAZ). In pratica, un regalo all'economia USA, ma un vero e proprio "bagno di sangue" per quella europea...

Vedremo chi avrà ragione....

AGGIORNAMENTI

Martedi 5 Aprile 2011: Un altro articolo (di fonte prestigiosa!) si aggiunge alla lista di quanti ritengono imminente un aumento dei tassi di interessi europei....

• Reuters 5/4 "ECB has "good reasons" to raise rates: OECD": "The European Central Bank has "good reasons" to raise interest rates this week, and this would have little impact on weaker euro zone countries struggling with debt crises, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Tuesday. The ECB is expected to become the first major central bank to begin raising interest rates since July 2008 after inflation in the 17-nation euro zone hit 2.6 percent in March. The OECD said central bankers increasingly need to focus on tackling inflation as the economic recovery takes root in major economies, adding that some of its members faced the risk of inflation becoming "un-anchored." "We see inflationary expectations creeping upwards a bit everywhere, I would say, in Europe, in the United States, in the UK," OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said in an interview with Reuters. "Central banks should keep inflation expectations under control," he said".

...e ancora un altro:

FAZ 4/5 "Zeit des billigen Geldes neigt sich dem Ende zu". Il grafico qui sotto dice: "L'inflazione crescente rendeprobabilel'aumento del tasso ufficiale di sconto"

Giovedi 7 Aprile 2011 [1]: 76 su 80 economisti intervistati da Reuters si dicono convinti che oggi la BCE annuncerà un aumento dei tassi di interesse dello 0,25%.

• Reuters 7/4 "ECB to tread softly with historic rate rise": "The European Central Bank is poised to raise interest rates from a record low 1.0 percent on Thursday and more is likely to follow but, fearful of heaping more pain on the euro zone's stragglers, it will give few clues about when the next move will come. ECB policymakers have been out in force in recent weeks flagging a rise that will be their first since July 2008. All but four of 80 economists polled by Reuters last week expected it to raise rates by 25 basis points".

Ora sono proprio curioso di vedere cosa si deciderà: la notizia del giorno infatti è che il Portogallo ha ufficialmente richiesto l'aiuto del pacchetto di salvataggio EU. Un aumento dei tassi, in queste condizioni, finirebbe solo per aggravare la situazione....

• CNBC 7/4 "Banks Rally as Portugal Seeks Aid, Talks Uncertain": "Portuguese bank stocks rallied on Thursday after the caretaker government decided to seek European financial aid but it is unclear how quickly a deal can be negotiated in the midst of an election campaign. Lisbon will have to agree to tough austerity targets to obtain the euro zone's third bailout after Greece and Ireland after applying for emergency loans in a turnaround following months of what economists said was denial of economic reality. Neighboring Spain, struggling to crawl out of recession after a real estate bubble burst, insisted it would not be next in the bond market's firing line".

[2]: Alla fine l'aumento dei tassi di interesse c'è stato. La notizia è generalmente interpretata dalla stampa internazionale come un fatto positivo, cioè come lotta all'inflazione e strategia di uscita dalla crisi:

• FAZ 7/4 "EZB startet Zinswende": "Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat erstmals seit Beginn der Finanzkrise die Zinsen erhöht. Im Kampf gegen die anziehende Inflation hob der EZB-Rat am Donnerstag den Schlüsselzins um einen viertel Prozentpunkt auf 1,25 Prozent an. Damit wagt die EZB die geldpolitische Wende, nachdem sie den Zielsatz für Zentralbankgeld seit Mai 2009 auf dem Rekordtief von 1,0 Prozent belassen hatte. Die EZB will mit dem Zinsschritt Inflationsgefahren bekämpfen. Vor allem wegen immer teurerer Nahrungsmittel und Energie war die Inflation im Euroraum zuletzt auf 2,6 Prozent geklettert. Damit liegt sie über dem von der EZB formulierten Stabilitätsziel von knapp zwei Prozent. Volkswirte erwarten, dass die Notenbank den Leitzins in den kommenden Monaten in kleinen Schritten auf 2,0 Prozent anheben wird. Damit soll der Preisdruck gesenkt und die Kaufkraft erhalten werden. Für die schwächelnde Konjunktur in hoch verschuldeten Ländern am Rand der Euro-Zone wie Irland, Griechenland und Portugal könnte die Zinserhöhung negativ sein. Höhere Zinsen können den Preisauftrieb bremsen, sie verteuern aber auch Kredite".
• CNBC 7/4 "ECB Raises Rates in Exit From Crisis Policy": "The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent on Thursday, announcing its first hike since July 2008 to counter firming inflation pressures in the 17-country euro zone. Speaking from Frankfurt after the rate announcement, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said euro zone monetary policy remains "very accommodative," and the ECB will monitor inflation rates "very closely." The phrase "monitoring closely" was once seen as a sign the ECB was two months off raising rates while "very closely" meant it was on the cards for next month. The term and use of "very" has lost its significance in recent years, however. The rate increase was made unanimously by members of the ECB's governing council, Trichet said".
• Reuters 7/4 "ECB hikes interest rates in exit from crisis policy": "The euro and German bund futures were steady after the decision, which ECB policymakers had flagged heavily in advance. All but four of 80 economists polled by Reuters last week expected a 25 basis point rise. The increase in the ECB's benchmark refinancing rate marks a gentle exit from the central bank's policy response to the global financial crisis. It had held the refi rate at a record low 1.0 percent since May 2009. "This makes the ECB the first major developed economy central bank to hike rates and the decision will cement its reputation as a single-minded inflation fighter," said ABN Amro economist Nick Kounis. "The hike is unwelcome for peripheral countries, but arguably the core member states were in need of this move already some time ago. In that sense, the timing of the increase is a balancing act, which is part and parcel of the one-size-fits-all monetary policy," he added. The ECB also raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent, and increased its marginal lending rate by the same amount to 2.0 percent. The rate decision came less than 24 hours after Portugal announced it was seeking European Union support, a decision long expected by financial markets". 

Matteo Olivieri
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