Cosenza (Italy), 28 Dicembre 2010
Nove trend da tenere sott'occhio nei prossimi mesi....
Presi singolarmente, mi sembrano segnali allarmanti. Presi complessivamente, potrebbero rivelarsi una miscela esplosiva per l'economia mondiale.
- Francia, l'Istituto Nazionale di Statistica francese INSEE rivede al ribasso le stime del Prodotto Interno Lordo; anche il livello di debito pubblico diminuisce per effetto dei minori consumi e dei minori costi di trasporto, attestandosi ad un livello dell'81,5% del PIL nel terzo quadrimestre del 2010 (vedi Reuters 28/12 "French Second and Third Quarter GDP Revised Down": "France revised down its third-quarter gross domestic product growth to 0.3 percent on Tuesday, from an initial figure of 0.4 percent, and revised down its second-quarter GDP rise to 0.6 percent from a preliminary figure of 0.7 percent.(...) Gross public debt fell by 17 billion euros by the end of the third quarter, reducing the total to 1,574.6 billion euros, the equivalent of 81.5 percent of GDP, statistics office INSEE said in a statement.");
- Germania, i consulenti economici del governo tedesco approvano l'idea di bond comunitari (detti anche "Eurobond"). I bond verrebbero emessi da tutti i paesi europei allo stesso tasso di interesse. Il motivo? Questi renderebbero stabile l'Eurozona, poichè i paesi europei rmarrebbero solvibili grazie alla forza del blocco comune europeo. L'idea è stata finora avversata dalla Cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel (vedi Deutsche Welle 27/12 "German government advisor backs eurobonds": "The debate about issuing so called eurobonds, or e-bonds, - loans with common interest rates across the eurozone - was ignited again on Monday when Professor Peter Bofinger, a member of the German government's panel of independent economic advisors, said that the bonds would stabilize the eurozone. "Issuing eurobonds would make it clear that the countries in Europe will remain solvent, and that it's just no longer possible to push some countries into a corner and burden these countries with extremely high interest," Bofinger said in an interview with German broadcaster Deutschland Radio. Eurobonds would be issued to all eurozone countries with the same interest rate, allowing those in financial difficulties to benefit from the collective strength of the bloc");
- USA, il prezzo delle case diminuisce più del previsto a Ottobre, segno che il settore immobiliare rimarrà depresso nonostante la ripresa di altri settori dell'economia statunitense (vedi Bloomberg 27/12 "Home Prices in U.S. Decrease More Than Forecast": "A wave of foreclosures waiting to reach the market means home prices will remain under pressure in 2011, representing a risk to household finances. Federal Reserve policy makers this month said “depressed” housing and high unemployment remained constraints on consumer spending, reasons why they reiterated a plan to expand record monetary stimulus. (...). Eighteen of 20 cities showed a decrease in prices in October, led by a 2.1 percent drop in Atlanta, and decreases of 1.8 percent in Chicago and Minneapolis. Denver and Washington were the only two that posted gains. Six markets, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Seattle, Tampa and Portland, Oregon, reached their lowest levels in October since prices started to retreat. “The double-dip is almost here,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P. Sales aren’t “giving any sense of optimism.”);
- BCE, aumenta l'acquisto di bond nell'ultimo periodo dell'anno. Nonostante l'aumento, i valori rimangono al di sotto dei livelli di inizio 2010 (vedi Bloomberg 27/12 "ECB steps up bond purchases to $1.47 billion": "Data from the European Central Bank shows it bought government bonds worth euro1.121 billion ($1.468 billion) in the week ended Dec. 24, as the ECB stepped up bond purchases in its fight against Europe's debt crisis. The previous week the central banks only invested euro603 million in bonds from governments with shaky finances such as Ireland, Greece and Portugal, disappointing traders who had hoped the ECB would play a more active role as the region tries to keep the debt crisis from pushing more states into international bailouts. Buying bonds supports their prices and keeps countries' borrowing costs in check. Despite the increase, Monday's data is still far below ECB bond purchases seen earlier this year");
- Eurozona (I), la volatilità sui mercati europei è destinata a continuare nel 2011 e il Patto Franco-Tedesco di prevedere la compartecipazione dei detentori di bond alla restituzione del debito (detto anche Deauville pact) crea sempre più dubbi. In particolare, il piano potrebbe rendere più difficoltosa la stabilità futura dell'Area Euro, se i paesi periferici avessero necessità di indebitarsi maggiormente sui mercati (vedi AFP "European bond market faces another volatile year": "Analysts now warn that even with the help of the European Central Bank, which since May has been trying to stabilise the market by buying from banks bonds issued by periphery countries, the eurozone's financial difficulties are likely to persist. "The problem is going to flare up again if demand is insufficient when the peripheral states try to raise money in the market," said Vincent Chaigneau of Societe Generale CIB");
- Eurozona (II), la crisi ha reso le economie europee più unite ma il sistema nel complesso è più fragile. Ora singoli paesi europei potranno dichiararsi insolventi: ciò renderà i mercati nervosi e la BCE meno adatta a combattere gli squilibri economici all'interno dell'Eurozona (vedi Wall Street Journal 27/12 "As Ireland Flails, Europe Lurches Across the Rubicon": "The two leaders had a risky plan: The Deauville pact, sealed that evening, called for investors holding bonds in insolvent euro-zone nations to shoulder losses on them, starting in 2013. That would instill discipline in profligate countries, but also implied that a Western European nation might default on its debts. That hadn't happened in half a century, and the mere suggestion would shake markets, Mr. Sarkozy's own advisers had warned. It also risked enraging the European Central Bank. For months, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, 68, had tried to rebuild investors' shattered confidence in the euro zone he had spent his career shaping. The central bank was almost single-handedly keeping Ireland and its tattered banks afloat. That task would be made more onerous by Ms. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy's pact, which risked undermining the currency union itself");
- Cina, il settore immobiliare continua a rimanere incandescente, nonostante le iniziative del governo cinese per calmierare il prezzo degli immobili. Secondo gli annunci, nel nuovo anno saranno messi in campo nuovi strumenti per deflazionare (!) l'economia cinese (vedi Reuters 28/12 "Analysis: China property market limps into new year": "Acutely aware of public anger over costly housing, Beijing will not stand for that. It will use higher interest rates, lending curbs and a battery of direct controls, from thwarting land speculators to levying a property tax, to deflate the real estate market. (...). Property prices will fall in the first six months of 2011, though by less than 10 percent, said Liu Shiqing and Xu Shengli, analysts at Essence Securities in Beijing. "Under the impact of the macro policies, shares in developers face high risks in the next two quarters," they said in a note to clients. (...). Real estate transactions and land prices have looked like rebounding in recent weeks, inviting the government to unveil fresh steps to cool the market at a time when the battle against inflation and asset bubbles is an official priority. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday that he was not satisfied with the results of property tightening so far and voiced determination to pull housing prices back to a "reasonable" level within his term, which ends in early 2013. "Until now, the measures have not been implemented well enough, and we will reinforce our efforts in two ways," he told a radio broadcast. That means, Wen said, that China will build more affordable housing and implement harsher monetary measures and stricter controls over land sales to curb speculation");
- Taiwan, per combattere la speculazione internazionale si introducono misure ancora più ristrettive di controlli sui movimenti di capitale. Ora, non sarà più consentito agli stranieri detenere titoli derivati non trasferibili (contratti a termine senza facoltà di consegna, a prevalenza over-the-counter, NdA) che eccedano il 20% del controvalore in valuta locale, una misura espressamente rivolta contro gli investitori esteri. (vedi Bloomberg 28/12 "Taiwan Cuts Limits on Banks’ Holdings of Derivatives": "Taiwan’s central bank said it will step up curbs on the use of exchange-rate derivatives to combat currency speculation by foreigners. Banks’ holdings of non-deliverable forwards and options in the Taiwan dollar will be limited to 20 percent of their positions in the local currency with immediate effect, the central bank said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday. The ceiling was previously one-third. Deliverable forwards are exempt from the restrictions as they are used by local companies to protect earnings against exchange-rate fluctuations, it said. The change is designed “to maintain order in the currency market and to prevent foreign speculative capital from intervening in the market,” the statement said. Developing economies have stepped up attempts to curb volatility in their currencies as near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Japan spur demand for higher-yielding emerging- market bonds and equities. Taiwan on Nov. 9 announced curbs on foreign investment in its debt, only allowing offshore funds to have up to 30 percent of their portfolios invested in all types of government bonds and money-market products");
- 2011, sarà l'anno del ritorno al mercato azionario, alle obbligazioni societarie e ai fondi immobiliari , mentre verrà progressivamente abbandonato il settore Titoli di Stato (vedi Securities Technology Monitor "Investors to Move into Equities in 2011, According to Aberdeen": "With low interest rates set to persist, yield will become the all-encompassing priority for investors in 2011, prompting them to move out of government bonds and cash back into equities, corporate bonds and real estate, Aberdeen Asset Management predicts. Investors have favored emerging markets in recent months, and Aberdeen expects that to continue, with developing regions “powering global growth in 2011 and beyond.”. “In 2011 and beyond, global economic growth will be powered by Asian and emerging regions,” said Mike Turner, head of global strategy and asset allocation at Aberdeen. “Indeed, we’ll see an increasing polarization of East versus West in terms of economic performance and monetary policy response. Investors may continue to worry about inflation, but thanks to anemic growth in the developed world, we think the threat is confined to emerging regions”. Corporations in emerging markets will offer strong earnings in 2011, but their valuations are rising, Aberdeen said. Thus, another emerging markets play is to invest in multi-national corporations. Volatility will continue, however, due to sovereign debt and inflation fears. “Volatility is likely to be sustained and correlations high, lending alternative assets a greater role in smoothing multi-asset portfolio performance,” Turner said. Among fixed income assets, current spreads suggest that the best yield opportunities are in non-government bonds and emerging market debt, particularly given a positive outlook for defaults, and in emerging markets, generally sound economic fundamentals, Aberdeen said. Equities offer competitive dividend yields compared with government bonds, and real estate has a yield advantage, too, Aberdeen said. Rents are set to increase once a sustainable recovery arrives, and also in light of weak development activity across all property sectors in recent years").
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