Cosenza (Italy), 15 Ottobre 2010
[Ringrazio il blog "Rischio Calcolato" per la pubblicazione di questo post sul sito web http://rischio-calcolato.blogspot.com/2010/10/guest-post-leaf-dal-quantitative-easing.html]
Si è appena conclusa la settimana valutaria, e già nuove ombre incombono sull'economia mondiale.
1) Dopo aver raggiunto un nuovo minimo dal 1995 nei confronti dello Yen giapponese, il Dollaro USA ha recupato qualcosa nei confronti delle principali valute internazionali, rimanendo sostanzialmente debole di fronte alle voci di un nuovo poderoso intervento della FED di acquisto di titoli obbligazionari statunitensi. Le vendite di Dollari USA sono motivate col fatto che un nuovo intervento FED tenderebbe a indebolire il Dollaro USA, per cui gli investitori hanno deciso di vendere Dollari USA prima che questi si deprezzino (vedi nota 1). Nel frattempo si sono verificate vendite di massa di azioni e obbligazioni asiatiche per "monetizzare" i guadagni dopo le buone performance delle ultime settimane (vedi nota 2).
2) Si addensano nuove nubi all'orizzonte: la Banca Centrale d'India, dopo dichiarazioni analoghe di altre Banche Centrali dei giorni scorsi, minaccia di intervenire sui mercati se i flussi di capitali dall'estero saranno disordinati e volatili (vedi nota 3). Nel frattempo, la BCE ammonische che una guerra valutaria sarebbe "fatale" per l'economia mondiale, poichè porterebbe a svalutazioni competitive e a protezionismi, vera causa della crisi degli anni 1930 (vedi nota 4). In un'altra intervista un altro membro del Direttivo della BCE, Gonzalez-Paramo, sostiene che non c'è nessuna guerra valutaria in atto: al contrario, le autorità internazionali collaborano intensamente perchè i cambi riflettano quanto meglio possibile i "fondamentali" dell'economia (vedi nota 5).
3) La BCE mantiene inalterati i tassi di interesse, sostenendo che non ci sono pressioni inflazionistiche nel medio periodo, nè necessità di restringere la politica monetaria. (vedi nota 6).
4) In un bell'articolo Reuters del 15 Ottobre, intitolato "The wrong sort of inflation" si riporta alla tradizionale diatriba tra economia neoclassica e keynesiana: se l'inflazione è solo e sempre un fenomeno puramente monetario, per come sosteneva il Premio Nobel Milton Friedman, allora la politica monetaria non ha alcuna influenza nel risolvere i problemi reali dell'economia, come disoccupazione, deficit commerciale, mercato immobiliare, ecc. (vedi nota 7). Così, da un punto di vista di assunzioni neoclassiche, il quantitative easing sarebbe un'assoluta irragionevolezza, poichè non risolverebbe i problemi strutturali dell'economia, anzi li aggraverebbe.
NOTE
1) Reuters 14 Ottobre "Dollar Index Pulls Away from 10-Month Low on Short-Covering": "The dollar has slid over the past month on heightened market expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to unveil a second round of quantitative easing as early as November."Market players who had piled up one-sided positions such as selling the dollar, on the back of a trend toward U.S. monetary easing are probably locking in some profits," said a trader for a Japanese bank". E ancora Bloomberg 15 Ottobre "Bernanke Sees Case for ‘Further Action’ on Inflation (Update3)": "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high. “There would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action,” Bernanke said today in remarks to a Boston Fed conference. He said the central bank could expand asset purchases or change the language in its statement, while saying “nonconventional policies have costs and limitations that must be taken into account in judging whether and how aggressively they should be used."
2) CNBC "GLOBAL MARKETS-Profits taken, pressure high ahead of Bernanke": "Investors took profits on gains in Asian equities this week but kept the U.S. dollar close to a 10-month low and commodities near two-year highs ahead of a speech by the head of the Federal Reserve. Major European stock markets opened higher, with Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.13 percent, France's CAC 40 up 0.23 percent and Germany's DAX rising 0.4 percent. The dollar steadied after plumbing a low for the year against major currencies overnight, having dropped 7 percent since September on expectations the Fed will soon have to flood the banking system with freshly printed cash to support the economy. An indication that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is getting close to this decision and perhaps considering other measures such as targeting inflation or even gross domestic product could unleash more dollar selling and buying of emerging market equities, commodities and longer-term bonds. However, with bets against the dollar significantly large, the risk of a bounce is appreciable. "We are concerned that the market is short dollar based on a deep expectation that the Fed Chairman will hint strongly at an aggressive QE programme," Steven Englander, head of G10 foreign exchange stratgey at Citi, said in a note".
3) CNBC 15 Ottobre "India cbank head says will intervene if flows lumpy": "India's central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao said on Friday the Reserve Bank of India was watching the exchange rate situation and will intervene in the forex market if inflows are lumpy and volatile. The central bank had bought dollars to stem the rupee's strength on Thursday -- a move which traders believe was the first intervention this year. India must manage capital inflows so that it can fund its current account deficit while at the same time not harming exports, a central bank deputy governor had said on Thursday".
4) Reuters 15 Ottobre "Race to Devalue Would Be 'Fatal': ECB Official": "European Central Bank policymaker Juergen Stark said better global coordination was needed to smooth out currency swings, which must on no account be allowed to develop into a race to devalue, a newspaper reported. Asked by German daily Handelsblatt whether the world was veering toward currency wars, Stark said, "It would be fatal to enter a race to devalue, which in the end will bring about protectionism. Protectionism in the 1930s is what led to the global economic crisis." Stark said the yuan, which Beijing has resisted pressure from Washington and other developed nations to allow to revalue faster, was likely to appreciate".
5) CNBC 15 Ottobre "ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo says there is no currency war": "I think the concept of a currency war is an unfortunate one because there isn't one ... there is a permanent dialogue among the authorities in the main countries in the world, both emerging and developed," he said in an interview on Spanish state television. He said currencies should reflect the real fundamentals of an economy and should not be manipulated. "Those emerging markets with surpluses, including China, should introduce more flexibility in their currencies," he said".
6) Bloomberg 14 Ottobre "ECB Says Rates ‘Appropriate,’ Signaling No Need to Increase": "The European Central Bank said interest rates in the 16-nation euro region are “appropriate,” indicating it sees no immediate need to tighten policy".
7) Reuters 15 Ottobre "The wrong sort of inflation": "Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Fed is beset by demons of its own design. Terrified by memories of the 1930s and Japan’s more recent experience in 1990s and 2000s, the academics who now dominate the Federal Open Market Committee display a hyperactive compulsion to tinker with monetary policy in a bid to solve all the problems besetting the U.S. economy. But if inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as Milton Friedman argued, Fed policy has a smaller role in solving real-economy problems such as a gaping trade deficit, moribund housing market, sluggish growth and joblessness. Expectations of another substantial round of quantitative easing (QE2) have gone too far for the Fed to pull back now. The Fed must press ahead or risk a massive, disorderly correction across all asset classes (bonds, equities, commodities and currencies). But once the trigger is pulled members of the FOMC should resist the temptation to tweak further and give the normal cyclical processes of recovery and structural reforms time to work".
4) Reuters 15 Ottobre "Race to Devalue Would Be 'Fatal': ECB Official": "European Central Bank policymaker Juergen Stark said better global coordination was needed to smooth out currency swings, which must on no account be allowed to develop into a race to devalue, a newspaper reported. Asked by German daily Handelsblatt whether the world was veering toward currency wars, Stark said, "It would be fatal to enter a race to devalue, which in the end will bring about protectionism. Protectionism in the 1930s is what led to the global economic crisis." Stark said the yuan, which Beijing has resisted pressure from Washington and other developed nations to allow to revalue faster, was likely to appreciate".
5) CNBC 15 Ottobre "ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo says there is no currency war": "I think the concept of a currency war is an unfortunate one because there isn't one ... there is a permanent dialogue among the authorities in the main countries in the world, both emerging and developed," he said in an interview on Spanish state television. He said currencies should reflect the real fundamentals of an economy and should not be manipulated. "Those emerging markets with surpluses, including China, should introduce more flexibility in their currencies," he said".
6) Bloomberg 14 Ottobre "ECB Says Rates ‘Appropriate,’ Signaling No Need to Increase": "The European Central Bank said interest rates in the 16-nation euro region are “appropriate,” indicating it sees no immediate need to tighten policy".
7) Reuters 15 Ottobre "The wrong sort of inflation": "Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Fed is beset by demons of its own design. Terrified by memories of the 1930s and Japan’s more recent experience in 1990s and 2000s, the academics who now dominate the Federal Open Market Committee display a hyperactive compulsion to tinker with monetary policy in a bid to solve all the problems besetting the U.S. economy. But if inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as Milton Friedman argued, Fed policy has a smaller role in solving real-economy problems such as a gaping trade deficit, moribund housing market, sluggish growth and joblessness. Expectations of another substantial round of quantitative easing (QE2) have gone too far for the Fed to pull back now. The Fed must press ahead or risk a massive, disorderly correction across all asset classes (bonds, equities, commodities and currencies). But once the trigger is pulled members of the FOMC should resist the temptation to tweak further and give the normal cyclical processes of recovery and structural reforms time to work".
Matteo Olivieri
>> Le informazioni qui contenute non (!) costituiscono sollecitazioni ad investire.
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento