Solo una settimana fa, la diminuzione del prezzo a termine delle principali commodities appariva a molte persone come un fatto temporaneo o isolato; oggi invece c'è la diffusa convinzione che si tratti di una nuova fase dei mercati, che probabilmente durerà ancora per qualche tempo. Come autore di questo blog LEAF avevo preso una posizione molto chiara, che ora si sta dimostrando veritiera!
Ecco il recente andamento di alcune materie prime e pregiate (Fonte FAZ): argento (1); petrolio (2).
Al riguardo, cito l'articolo CNBC 11/5 "Is Second Commodities Sell-Off a Big Bear Signal?", in cui ci si chiede se la vendita di massa cui si sta assistendo oramai da giorni sia un segnale di mercato nuovamente "ribassista":
Nervous was the only way to describe the mood on Wall Street Wednesday, after a rout in commodities sent investors running for cover. That’s the second time a commodities sell-off has rocked markets in the space of only a week. Declines in energy [XLE 74.26 -2.21 (-2.89%) ] commanded the Street’s full attention, with crude [CLCV1 98.18 -0.03 (-0.03%) ] sliding to less than $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, the bearish sentiment was so intense in gasoline futures [RBCV1 3.128 0.0052 (+0.17%) ] they had to be halted on the Nymex for a short time. But other commodities tumbled too. Silver [SICV1 34.27 -1.245 (-3.51%) ] traded sharply lower as did copper [HGCV1 3.8845 -0.029 (-0.74%) ] sending natural resource related stocks such as Freeport McMoRan [FCX 48.27 -2.84 (-5.56%) ] on a roller coaster-style drop. The move is particularly disconcerting because energy and materials [XLB 39.19 -1.07 (-2.66%) ] had been the top performing sectors over the past two quarters when stocks rallied. If gains are not sustainable in materials and energy, and other sectors such as financials [XLF 16.00 -0.22 (-1.36%) ] face systemic challenges, can the stock market possibly advance?
Nel frattempo, i declini nel prezzo delle commodities stanno causando ribassi nei titoli azionari, a cominciare proprio dai mercati asiatici, che hanno investito per larga parte in questi settori (vedi Reuters 11/5 "Commodities fall hits Asian markets":
A mio avviso tale correzione nei prezzi delle materie prime, pregiate e nei metalli è un qualcosa di duraturo, almeno fino al medio periodo. A convincermi di tale affermazione è la constatazione del differenziale al momento esistente nei prezzi dei titoli derivati, in particolare tra options e futures. In particolare, il prezzo dei futures è in generale maggiore del prezzo delle relative options.
A mio avviso tale correzione nei prezzi delle materie prime, pregiate e nei metalli è un qualcosa di duraturo, almeno fino al medio periodo. A convincermi di tale affermazione è la constatazione del differenziale al momento esistente nei prezzi dei titoli derivati, in particolare tra options e futures. In particolare, il prezzo dei futures è in generale maggiore del prezzo delle relative options.
Asian share markets fell on Thursday after a second big sell-off in commodities in less than a week cut investor appetite for riskier investments and boosted the U.S. dollar, although oil prices clawed back some losses in early trade. Global markets have been regaining ground since a near-record fall in commodities last week, but remain skittish as investors mull issues ranging from a possible Greek debt restructure to signs of a slowdown in China.
Ciò significa che al momento coloro i quali hanno venduto in passato opzioni o futures devono chiudere le loro posizioni pagando la differenza tra prezzo delle options e prezzo dei futures a coloro i quali intendono esercitare ora l'opzione di acquisto. Questo implica peraltro che chi in passato contava su un livello stabile dei prezzi, sta ora subendo grandi perdite, perchè è costretto a vendere le merci oggetto dei titoli derivati ad un prezzo inferiore a quelli attuali di mercato.
Contestualmente, chi esercita l'opzione di acquisto troverà conveniente acquistare altri futures a termine, in modo che - se i tassi di interesse dovessero aumentare alla scadenza naturale del future - se ne trarrebbe un ulteriore profitto!
Da ciò si intuisce come, se alla fine di Giugno il programma di QE dovesse effettivamente concludersi (come la FED ha più volte ripetuto), potrebbe cominciare un periodo caratterizzato da aumenti dei tassi di interesse e da elevati profitti a favore degli intermediari finanziari che hanno scommesso sull'acquisto di titoli derivati.
Ovviamente, questo processo potrebbe innescare anche una serie di perdite a cascata fra quanti dovranno consegnare merci a scadenza, e portare addirittura a una ondata di fallimenti tra chi ha venduto a termine opzioni di vendita o futures. In ogni caso, sembra consequenziale attendersi un periodo di diminuzione sostanziale dei prezzi.
Vedi anche Marketwatch 12/5 "Silver futures sink 7%; gold, other metals fall":
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Gold and other metals futures fell on Thursday, with the price of silver tumbling 7%, as the U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currencies. Silver for July delivery /quotes/comstock/21e!f1:si\n11 SIN11 -6.87% slumped $2.41, or nearly 7%, to $33.10 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex. The contract extended losses from Wednesday, when it sank 7.7%. “Despite the price slump already, we still see further correction potential for silver, though its downward course is unlikely to be a one-way street,” Commerzbank said in a note. Gold futures also dropped Thursday, with the June contract /quotes/comstock/21e!f:gc\m11 GCM11 -1.04% falling $16.10, or 1%, to $1,485.30 an ounce, after losing 1% on Wednesday. The declines in metals futures came as the U.S. dollar gained against its major rivals. The dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 DXY +0.37% traded up 0.5% to 75.626. Dollar strength usually weighs on dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower opening and European stock markets posted losses in midday trading. Oil futures also dropped, with the June contract falling $1.36 to $96.88 a barrel. Read more about oil. Metals prices have surged this year, with both gold and silver hitting records as investors piled into the complex. “The problem arises when prices rise too far and too fast, in which case they inevitably create the seeds of their own destruction, as they bring about higher inflation, higher interest rates, a slowdown in demand, and depending on the commodity involved, a push towards substitution and alternatives,” said strategists at MF Global.
AGGIORNAMENTI
Giovedi 12 Maggio 2011: Ecco quattro interessanti articoli di giornata che sembrano confermare quanto da me scritto:
- Reuters 12/5 "Exxon says oil barrel should be in $60-$70 range": Exxon, uno dei giganti petroliferi, sostiene che il prezzo del petrolio dovrebbe attestarsi sui 60-70 Dollari al barile, almeno sulla base dei "fondamentali" (cioè domanda e offerta): Vedi: "The head of Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) stopped short of blaming speculators for the run-up in oil prices, but he told Congress on Thursday that based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand, the price of oil should be in the range of $60 to $70 a barrel. "When we look at it, it's going to be somewhere in the $60 to $70 range if you said: 'If I had access to the next marketable barrel, what would it cost?" Exxon's CEO and Chairman Rex Tillerson told the Senate Finance Committee in response to a question about the influence of speculators on high oil prices".
- CNBC 12/5 "Commodities Slide Further; How Low Can They Go?": Anche oggi una nuova correzione nel prezzo delle materie prime e pregiate, e - probabilmente - molto è ancora da venire. Vedi: "High volatility and less liquidity are contributing to another sharp sell-off as energy and metals retest — or break below — last week's lows. Oil prices [CLCV1 98.64 0.43 (+0.44%) ] are holding above $95 for now, but gasoline continues to drive the energy market down. Many technical traders expect WTI oil futures will dip to $94 or lower by the end of the week. RBOB gasoline futures have slid another 2 percent [RBCV1 3.0736 -0.0492 (-1.58%) ] Thursday morning, ahead of another margin hike from the CME Group at the close of trading. Silver [SICV1 34.225 -1.29 (-3.63%) ] is leading the sell-off once again. After rising to new 31-year highs for most of April, silver futures are set to post the biggest two week decline in 25 years, plunging more than 5 percent this morning. Technically, traders say silver—which traded near $50 an ounce two and a half weeks ago—could break below $31 before the weekend. "Traders, brokerage firms, and exchanges are making a collective reassessment of the risk in the market and their models used to quantify this risk,” says trader John Netto of M3 Capital. “As a result, traders and hedge funds are unwinding positions further in oil, silver, copper and other markets to reflect this." Energy, metals and other commodities are highly correlated and many traders are having to deleverage positions — increasing their selling — to manage risk. For energy traders, "the higher volatility also means that the new money coming into oil has to trade in smaller size due to the increase in 'value at risk,'" says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob. "Large speculators that have accumulated record length in crude and that might want to save whatever profit they have in the books by selling their length will be met by buyers that can only trade on smaller clips due to the increase in the 'value at risk.'" Fearing the risks are too high right now — especially in the face of increased margin rates — traders are heading for the exits and commodity prices head further south".
- Bloomberg 12/5 "Investors Shifting to Cash From Commodities": si sostiene che circa un terzo degli oltre 1.000 investitori intervistati ha dichiarato di voler spostare il proprio portafoglio dalle materie prime al denaro liquido (cash) nei prossimi sei mesi. Vedi: "Global investors have tempered their optimism about the U.S. and world economies and plan to put more of their money in cash and less in commodities over the next six months, a Bloomberg survey found. Almost 1 in 3 of those questioned say they will hold more cash, while 30 percent intend to reduce investments in commodities, according to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,263 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Both results were the highest since the survey began asking the question last June. A plurality -- 40 percent -- expects oil prices to fall in the next six months, the first time respondents felt that way since the inception of this poll in July 2009. The “big stimulus game is over,” said Bill O’Connor, a poll participant and founder of Sagg Main Capital hedge fund in New York, in explaining why he’s moving money into cash as the Federal Reserve winds up its bond-buying program and U.S. lawmakers look to cut the budget. Fewer than 4 in 10 of those surveyed described the U.S. and global economies as improving, down from about 50 percent who felt that way back in January. U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from 3.1 percent in the final three months of 2010. Home prices fell in more than three-quarters of U.S. cities in the first quarter of 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors".
- CNBC 12/5 "The Gas Sell-Off – Speculators or Fundamentals?": si sostiene che i recenti prezzi decrescenti sono dovuti a motivi strutturali , non speculativi, e che l'attesa di maggiori tassi di interesse della FED è il motivo di tali cadute nei prezzi. Si aggiunge inoltre che nelle prossime settimane si dovrebbe assistere ad un "terrificante" processo di vendite di massa, non così grave tuttavia come quello del 2008. infine, da uno studio di Societe Generale, si stima che gli hedge fund siano tra i maggiori acquirenti di titoli derivati a termine di questi giorni. Vedi: "Wednesday’s dramatic price action in the commodities market sparked a debate over whether the losses where driven by fundamentals or traders getting into trouble as CME Group implemented margin calls in the gasoline market, as it had done a week earlier with silver. In a note to clients, Barclays Capital outlined a series of fundamental reasons for Wednesday’s losses. “Data published overnight by the US DoE showed that oil inventories in the US rose more than expected bringing inventories to the highest level since May 2009,” Yingxi Yu, a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, wrote. “Gasoline imports surprised to the upside, while production also rose despite concerns about weather-related supply disruptions,” Yu added. “More importantly, despite the latest build, gasoline stocks are still 3.7 million barrels below the five-year average, which in itself does not constitute a bearish scenario big enough to bring about the 7.6 percent fall in prices yesterday,” he said. “Instead, it appears that the market was perhaps a bit overextended on concerns about the impact of floods on refinery production, which remains a major source of uncertainty in coming weeks,” Yu added. Fed-Related Risk-off Trading? Others though believe the recent losses for commodities indicate the market is spooked by the prospect of higher rates and the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. “Every risk asset on earth is linked to the Fed’s balance sheet,” said Philippa Malmgren from Principalis Asset Management in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. “There have been two drivers of the recent volatility, supply side shocks and the prospect of the Fed tightening,” said Malmgren, who worked as an advisor to the White House during George W.Bush's term. “Hence the dollar is higher while risky assets fall, the commodities sell-off will be horrifying, but not as bad as 2008,” she said. The big question is who have been the big losers amid the commodity volatility. Societe Generale analysts estimate that the hedge fund industry was net long crude oil on May 3 and “net selling of gas had diminished strongly.” Who got out in time will be watched closely on the trading floors over the coming days and weeks".
Sabato 14 Maggio 2011: Segnalo l'eccellente articolo CNBC 13/5 "Market Missing Big Picture On Inflation: El-Erian", in cui il l'amministratore delegato (CEO) di PIMCO esprime un parere molto simile a quello da me espresso nel mio post: i mercati non hanno ancora colto il vero significato degli eventi recenti.
Pimco Chief Executive Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC Friday he is disturbed by rising commodities prices and how investors are missing the bigger picture of what that increase means. "There are two realities out there. When economists and market participants look at [the CPI data] they call it 'transitory.' When Main Street looks at this it says, 'This is not transitory, guys, this is hurting me,'" El-Erian said. Calling the situation "transitory" makes the market "complacent," he said. "We have to ask the question, what are the consequences? There are real-life consequences that everybody out there knows about and somehow we as a society have to navigate through it." He said investors have to step back every so often and look three to five years down the road at the economy and what its effect will be on markets around the world. [...] "I don’t think the policymakers know what the consequences are of what they’re doing," he said. "The balance between benefits and collateral damage, the unintended consequences, is shifting and this is not a very comfortable situation." Despite a recent rally in 10-year Treasurys, he said Pimco has not changed its view on buying government bonds. "Recent numbers in the economy are weaker than we would like. So that pushes yields down. But you have to recognize that as of June 30, the main buyer of Treasurys is stepping out," he said, referring to the Federal Reserve. "Who’s going to step in at these levels of yields is not clear. And you certainly don’t want to own something if you can’t identify another buyer.Sabato 14 Maggio 2011: Segnalo l'articolo CNBC 14/5 "Bullish Funds Slash Commodity Bets by $17 Billion", in cui si confermano le indicazioni contenute nel mio post: la settimana appena trascorsa è stata caratterizzata da chiusura di posizioni su titoli derivati precedentemente acquistati.
Big hedge funds and speculators cut their bullish bets on commodity markets by $17 billion in the week through Tuesday, the biggest bear turn since at least 2009, regulatory data showed on Friday. The so-called "managed money" funds cut their overall net long holdings in 22 U.S. futures markets by over 222,000 contracts or 13 percent in the five days ended May 10, according to Reuters calculations based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitment of Traders. The data, based on both futures and options positions, confirm that some big hedge funds, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and other major speculators dramatically pared back long positions during a week in which prices abruptly collapsed before staging a modest rebound. [...] The biggest decline in the value of net long positions occurred in the crude oil market, where prices dropped by about 6.5 percent. The New York Mercantile Exchange's U.S. crude oil futures and the IntercontinentalExchange's look-alike contract saw speculators' net long position drop by $6.5 billion. The notional figure is calculated by Reuters based on the change in the net position from a week ago, multiplied by the contract's value at the end of the period. Because most investors trade commodities on margin, the drop in the value of positions is not directly equivalent to total divestment. Bullish bets on oil fell to the lowest since late February, when traders were beginning to factor in more geopolitical risk from Middle East instability and war in Libya. But the drop occurred even as the total open interest — the number of outstanding futures contracts that haven't been settled — rose to a record, indicating that more traders were opening positions than were closing them during the week. While bullish speculators sold long positions actively during the week, bearish speculators also added new short positions, increasing the short interest to the highest since late February. The "swap dealers" category, generally big banks, covered some of their large net short position. Precious metals also saw heavy selling during the week, although this was more the result of pure long liquidation than traders taking up new short positions. Long holdings in COMEX gold fell by nearly 20,000 contracts or 10 percent on the week, a reduction equivalent to roughly $3 billion, the biggest drop since last November. Gold futures fell by about 1.5 percent that week. Net length in COMEX silver, whose deep sell-off from a record high began the previous week, fell by nearly a quarter with funds cutting their bullish holdings by $1.1 billion. Big hedge funds had actually begun paring positions weeks before prices reached an all-time high of nearly $50 an ounce. At about 19,000 contracts, speculative net length is at its second-lowest since early 2010. The Chicago corn saw similar positioning dominated by fund managers taking profits. Bullish funds cut their length by some $950 million to take positions to their lowest in six weeks, and near the lowest since the middle of last year. Prices fell by a more modest 1.8 percent. "They still have a sizable amount and if things don't go their way, there could be more liquidation to come," said grains analyst Mark Schultz at Northstar Commodity Investments Co. in Minneapolis.Domenica 15 Maggio 2011: Credo che si possa ormai mettere la parola "fine" a questo post, citando il seguende articolo CNBC 13/5 (che leggo solo ora!) "Oil Settles Higher, Above $99 as Shorts Cover Positions", in cui si dice chiaramente che gli investitori sono riapparsi all'orizzonte, acquistando titoli derivati a copertura di precedenti posizioni di vendita (c.d. short-covering). Questa è esattamente la spiegazione da me data nel mio post!
Oil rose on Friday in late short-covering, ending the week higher after a volatile session whipsawed by European economic concerns and news Libyan leader Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi may have been wounded. Trade volumes slowed after a week of heavy activity that saw big swings of more than $11 a barrel between the highs and lows. Brent crude ended up nearly $5 on the week, after dropping $16 last week as the market digested a wide range of factors fogging the supply and demand outlook, including the death of Osama bin Laden, the impact of high fuel prices, euro zone debt worries and consumer nation monetary policy. Buyers came in late Friday ahead of the weekend after gains in the dollar sent prices down just before midday in New York. "Crude prices rose near the close on short-covering ahead of the weekend," said Tom Knight,senior trader of Truman Arnold in Texarkana, Texas.
Ecco la definizione di short-covering (Fonte Investopedia):
What Does Short Covering Mean? Purchasing securities in order to close an open short position. This is done by buying the same type and number of securities that were sold short. Most often, traders cover their shorts whenever they speculate that the securities will rise. In order to make a profit, a short seller must cover the shorts by purchasing the security below the original selling price. Also referred to as "buy to cover" or "buyback".
Investopedia explains Short CoveringDomenica 25 Settembre 2011: A distanza di qualche mese è utile fare il punto della situazione. Ebbene, i prezzi delle commodieties sono effettivamente in caduta libera, come mesi addietro segnalavo nel mio post. Al riguardo, rinvio al seguente articolo CNBC 23/9 "Silver Prices Slammed — Here's Why":
For example, suppose a trader has sold short 50 shares of ABC stock at a price of $10 per share because he speculated that ABC will not be successful in the near future. Unfortunately for the trader, the company has been very lucky recently and its price rises to $15 per share. In order to limit his losses, this trader decides to cover his short position by buying back the 50 short sold shares at a price of $15 per share.
Silver got slammed Friday in what is one of the biggest one-day selloffs on record. (See the top weekly selloffs in gold and silver.)Matteo Olivieri
Driving the silver [SICV1 30.101-6.477 (-17.71%)
] decline is global uncertainty about economic growth, demand for the U.S. dollar and liquidation of hard assets for cash.
Fueling the selloff in silver is a near-$100 decline in the price of gold.
The "gold [GCCV1 1639.80
And, he says, "over 50 percent of silver's demand is industrial demand." With the Fed calling attention this week to the chance of significant downside risk in the economy, traders are concerned that slower economic growth will translate to reduced demand for silver.
Other industrials moving lower include copper [HGCV1 3.28
Traders talking about "massive liquidations" and new shorts adding to the selloff.
"We’ve seen a big fund-related selloff across the board yesterday and today, with even gold seeing big declines," says David Wilson, director of metals research at Societe Generale.
"Fears over a Greek default in particular have prompted a rush to cash (the U.S. dollar in this case)" and therefore, a decline in demand for dollar-based assets such as silver.
"We have had strong selling, as the USD has rallied and money flowed into Treasurys," says Jim Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC. "All the precious metals have weakened in sympathy with other commodities."
Despite double-digit percentage declines in Friday's sell-off, silver returns are about flat year-to-date. In addition, margins are relatively high — around 9 percent of the value of the contract versus three to five percent on average. For investors looking for a source of funds, those are two more reasons to sell.
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