Dow Jones e fine del QE: "Eppur si muove!"

Cosenza (Italy), 19 Maggio 2011

Sono sempre più convinto che la fine del programma di Quantitative Easing della Federal Reserve coinciderà con un periodo di ripresa del mercato borsistico statunitense, e i miei ultimi post sono stati tutti incentrati a spiegare perchè ciò dovrebbe avvenire.

Ho anche mostrato come la crescita del Dow Jones possa essere collegato ad un aumento del Dollaro USA, probabile segnale che l'economia statunitense si stia davvero rafforzando e il denaro rientri in Borsa.

Nonostante lo scetticismo generale, mi pare che ora i primi articoli di stampa comincino ad emergere, a conferma delle mie idee. Eccoli elencati:

• The New York Times 18/5 "Some See Rise Ahead for Dollar": nell'articolo si dice che scommettere contro il Dollaro USA potrebbe non essere più una scelta conveniente nei prossimi mesi.

[...] But betting against the dollar may no longer be such a safe play — not necessarily because of any sudden macroeconomic shifts but because of a sense that the long dollar sell-off may have finally gone too far. Since May 4, the dollar is up 4 percent against the euro and 2 percent against the pound, while rallying against the Romanian and Latvian currencies as well. The dollar’s bounce, though too brief to be called a trend, has not been driven by any noticeable improvement in America’s economic fundamentals. Indeed, the faint but real risk that Congress will fail to reach agreement on raising the legal ceiling on government borrowing only underscores the still parlous state of the American economy. At the same time, unemployment in the United States remains stubbornly high, at 9 percent. And there is a strong belief among big money investors that the Obama administration as well as the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, tacitly welcome a cheaper dollar to spur exports and encourage American manufacturers to hire more aggressively. “The U.S. economy is still facing headwinds — from weak housing to reductions in government spending,” said Ray Attrill, a currency strategist for BNP Paribas in New York. “For those reasons, we think the export sector is where policy makers are looking for growth.” But analysts also see another, more technical reason behind the dollar’s long decline — one that may well be ending. Ever since the global financial crisis began to ease in 2009, the appeal of investing in higher-yielding currencies and commodities all over the world has created what, in trader parlance, is called a risk-on, risk-off dynamic. Investors tend to sell their safer holdings, like United States Treasury bonds, when they feel more bullish. Because 90 percent of the world’s hedge funds are dollar-based, those changes in sentiment can have a depressing effect on the American currency. Reserve-rich central banks in emerging markets have also been selling dollars and buying euros to rebalance their reserve portfolios, said Mr. Attrill, citing recent data from the International Monetary Fund.

• CNBC 13/5 "Market History Says Commodities Boom Ending Soon: Strategist": nell'articolo si cita il parere investitori specializzati che si dicono convinti che il prezzo delle materie prime sia destinato a diminuire durevolmente. Sempre nell'articolo si legge che il nuovo recente aumento del coefficiente di riserva bancario deciso dalle autorità Cinesi dovrebbe accelerare questo ribasso dei prezzi, essendo minore la moneta in circolazione.

While the dollar and oil may be trading in tandem Friday, a falling dollar did not play a big role in the commodity price boom these past 115 months, Darda said, pointing out that the dollar fell only 40 percent from its peak in 2001, while commodities soared 240 percent. Instead, the dominant force in commodity prices has been China, he said. In a Thursday research note, Darda said commodity prices are sliding because of a hike in reserve requirements for Chinese banks, which has slowed money growth and increased risk spreads in China. Another factor? A contracting balance sheet for the European Central Bank, he says. “Most observers think ‘it’s different this time’ for commodity prices,” Darda said. And while it may be, he cautions that, in the past, “’it’s different this time’ has proven to be a costly mantra.” This past week, the boom appeared to have stalled, as commodity prices plunged on fears of a slowing global economy and falling demand for gasoline, in turn triggered by hard-to-swallow prices at the gas pump. On Wednesday, U.S. light crude sank 5.5 percent, while silver futures tanked 7.7 percent. [...] While the dollar and oil may be trading in tandem Friday, a falling dollar did not play a big role in the commodity price boom these past 115 months, Darda said, pointing out that the dollar fell only 40 percent from its peak in 2001, while commodities soared 240 percent. Instead, the dominant force in commodity prices has been China, he said. In a Thursday research note, Darda said commodity prices are sliding because of a hike in reserve requirements for Chinese banks, which has slowed money growth and increased risk spreads in China. Another factor? A contracting balance sheet for the European Central Bank, he says.

• CNBC 18/5 "Stocks AND Commodities Cheap Now?": nell'articolo, il giornalista si dice sorpreso di sentire dire da investitori, per la prima volta da settimane, che azioni e materie prime sono diventati un business attraente.

For the first time in two weeks, I'm hearing traders talk about stocks — and commodities — looking attractive. And why not? The S&P 500 is down almost 3 percent from the multiyear high it hit at the end of April. The CRB Index is down almost 10 percent this month. Other than cash, there are not many places to put money. Bond prices keep rising. People are buying 10-year Treasurys at 3.11 percent. You're kidding, right? While some are clearly anticipating that the sluggish economy will bring the markets down much further, others are not so sure. "Looks to me like some people are betting on QE3," one trader said to me this morning. "There is no chance they are going to allow a double dip."

Qui di seguito, il grafico del Dow Jones costantemente aggiornato, a 10 giorni e a 3 mesi.

AGGIORNAMENTI

Venerdi 20 Maggio 2011: Interessantissimo articolo Reuters 19/5 "End of QE2 to hurt stocks, bonds: Reuters poll", che la dice tutta sull'atmosfera di incertezza che regna intorno al tema "Fine del QE". Da un sondaggio condotto dalla Reuters, risulta che 40 su 64 investitori intervistati la pensano (quasi su tutto) come da me espresso nel mio articolo: prezzo dei bond governativi, euro e materie prime diminuiranno alla conclusione del programma di QE, mentre aumenteranno Dollaro e rendimento sui titoli obbligazionari. Gli intervistati si dicono convinti anche di una diminuzione dei mercati azionari, ma su questo punto le mie opinioni divergono.

Investors betting on a rise in stocks, bonds and commodities should prepare for a loud sucking sound in their portfolios next month when the Federal Reserve pulls the plug on its $600 billion stimulus program. Stocks, bonds, gold and the euro are expected to fall in the three months after the end of the Fed's second massive bond buying operation, also known as quantitative easing, or QE2, a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund managers found on Thursday. Investors and traders approach the end of QE2 with a sense of trepidation, worried that with the Fed no longer supporting the market, investments that have been profitable for the last nine months will plummet and rattle confidence in the shaky economic recovery. The survey showed investors overwhelmingly thought government bonds would suffer from the Fed's exit, with 40 of 64 respondents saying the end of quantitative easing would drive up yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds. Although equities and commodities prices have already been declining in anticipation, the end of QE2 will likely leave markets more vulnerable to issues that investors overlooked as long as the Fed was printing money at a record pace. Concerns about the European debt crisis, the Chinese economic slowdown and the struggling U.S. jobs market, already gnawing away at investor confidence, may now take a big bite out of sentiment across a range of markets. "The psychological impact of QE2 is more important than the action itself," said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede in Philadelphia, with $19.8 billion under management. "QE2 is a statement that the Fed will act as a backstop," he added. Volatility is also poised to grow as declining global liquidity makes investors less willing to take on risk at any price. Out of 63 respondents, 36 said markets will become more volatile when QE2 ends. The dollar, on the other hand, should gain as the Fed stops lowering its value by printing money. Out of the 64 participants, 38 expect the greenback to strengthen versus the euro, while 14 see no impact. Still, the exchange rate between the two currencies will mostly depend on broader developments in the euro zone and the United States, both struggling to manage mountains of debt after the global financial crisis. 

Matteo Olivieri
>> Le informazioni qui contenute non costituiscono sollecitazioni ad investire.