Un collega blogger mi chiede di dare rilevanza sul mio blog LEAF all'articolo "Il Proiettile di Argento 6: (Fondamentale) Se Vuoi Speculare sull’Argento DEVI sapere Che….", in cui si sostiene che il prezzo dell'argento, già ai massimi, arriverà a breve alle stelle.
Le mie posizioni sono tuttavia più vicine a quelle esposte oggi nell'articolo CNBC "Commodities Bubble Bursting? Not By a Long Shot: Pros", in cui si ricorda come l'argento proprio in questi giorni ha invertito la rotta, ed ha cominciato a quotare con importanti perdite (vedi grafico fonte FAZ):
"What has been happening is a massive commodities slide signaled by a huge-run up in silver [SICV1 36.231 -3.152 (-8%) ] prices. The white metal soared 81 percent in a three-month period before reaching a closing high on April 29. Since then, it has tumbled nearly 25 percent as exchanges have upped margins—or the money required to buy a contract on speculation. The rest of the commodities sector has fallen simultaneously due to several factors, including worries about global growth and a rise in oil stocks".
Io credo che tale tendenza al ribasso, per ora appena cominciata, sarà destinata ad accentuarsi quando la FED deciderà di concludere il programma di Quantitative Easing.
Il mio ragionamento è così riassumibile:
- Un aumento dei tassi di interesse USA indurrebbe a vendite di massa (c.d. sell-off) di titoli obbligazionari (bond);
- Poichè i bond sono attivi di valore nei bilanci societari, le aziende - piuttosto che disfarsene - preferiscono acquistare "opzioni di vendita" (buy put options) sui bond, materie prime, materie pregiate ecc. Questo vuol dire che al momento potrebbe essere conveniente acquistare a termine "opzioni di vendita" piuttosto che vendere a termine i titoli o le merci in senso proprio;
- Acquistare un'opzione di vendita oggi equivale quindi a proteggersi dal rischio che un aumento dei tassi di interesse possa diminuire il valore patrimoniale di titoli obbligazionari.
Pertanto, non è un caso che il Chicago Merchantile Exchange annunci un nuovo record nei titoli derivati sull'argento contrattati sulla propria piattaforma (vedi "CME Group Announces New Volume Records in Silver Futures and Silver Options Open Interest"):
"CHICAGO, April 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it had reached record volume yesterday in its COMEX Silver futures, as well as in open interest of its Silver options.
Yesterday, trading of Silver futures reached 319,204 contracts, surpassing the prior record of 201,216 contracts set on November 9, 2010. At the same time, open interest in Silver options reached a new record of 240,344 contracts. The prior record of 235,992 contracts was set on April 21, 2011. Silver futures have demonstrated rapid growth during the month of April. Month-to-date average daily volume (ADV) for Silver futures has increased 218 percent from this point last year. During 2011 year-to-date, ADV for Silver futures have grown 110 percent versus the same period last year. These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of COMEX. As the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, weather and real estate. CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex® electronic trading platform and its trading facilities in New York and Chicago. CME Group also operates CME Clearing, one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, which offers clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts, as well as for over-the-counter derivatives transactions through CME ClearPort®. These products and services ensure that businesses everywhere can substantially mitigate counterparty credit risk in both listed and over-the-counter derivatives markets.
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe Logo, CME, Globex and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners".
Le elevate quotazioni raggiunte da molte materie prime e pregiate nei giorni scorsi non (!) vuol dire - a mio avviso - che i mercati si attendono un aumento futuro dei prezzi di mercato, ma piuttosto una loro duratura diminuzione e, per questo motivo, stanno acquistando ora opzioni di vendita futura. Una diminuzione dei prezzi oggi, dovrebbe innescare (almeno nel medio periodo) ulteriori diminuzioni a cascata.
Pertanto, la mia conclusione è la seguente: se i tassi di interesse aumenteranno, le perdite sui titoli/merci verrebbero più che recuperate dal quanto ricavato sulle "opzioni di vendita"; al contrario, se i tassi di interesse dovessero rimanere ancora stabili, l'opzione di acquisto andrà in scadenza senza essere esercitata. In questo caso, chi ha venduto tali opzioni avrà comunque guadagnato una commissione (c.d. fee). In entrambi i casi, scommettere su opzioni di vendita comporterà delle perdite sui produttori di materie prime e pregiate, e pertanto i loro prezzi sembrano destinati a diminuire nel tempo.
Vedi anche:
- Reuters 5/5 "Oil crashes 10 percent in record rout": "Shell-shocked traders said the decline that has more than halved this year's oil price gains might not be over yet, but few were ready to call an end to the long bull run. "The longer-term bull cycle is still in place, but this correction may have a life span of several months, as weaker economic data is fueling this correction to a large part," said Sterling Smith, senior analyst for Country Hedging Inc in Minnesota. [...]. Additional pressure came from news OPEC was considering raising formal output limits when it meets in June to convince oil markets it wants to bring prices down and reverse the impact of fuel inflation on economic growth. Brent crude futures for June settled down $10.39 at $110.80 a barrel, the second biggest drop on record, in the fourth straight day of losses that sent prices breaking below the 50-day moving average. Later it fell as low as $109.02 a barrel in post-settlement trade. U.S. crude settled down $9.44 at $99.80 a barrel, before hitting $98.25 a barrel in post-settlement trade, marking the second-biggest one day loss in dollar terms on record".
- Reuters 5/5 "Analysis: As Fed exits bonds, others likely to crowd back in"
Venerdi 6 Maggio 2011: Interessanti le tabelle di fonte FAZ, che confermano le mie opinioni esprese. Secondo le tabelle del quotidiano tedesco, la domanda d'argento proviene esclusivamente da investitori, non dal settore industriale (1), che il prezzo di tutte le commodities è in calo costante da circa un mese (2), e che questi sarebbero costretti a vendere le loro posizioni in caso di rapida caduta del corso dei titoli detenuti in portafoglio (3).
Segnalo ancora l'articolo Reuter 6/5 "Commodity fund managers see sell-off as short-term", secondo cui il calo delle quotazioni dei derivati è un fatto temporaneo e anticipa futuri rally non appena il programma di Quantitative Easing verrà concluso (insomma, tesi del tutto opposta alla mia).
"Fund managers investing in commodities futures and commodity-related stocks see this week's sell-off as a short-term dip before the prospect of tightening supplies drives a further rally. [...] Analysts said markets such as oil had plunged through significant technical levels and the selling had gathered momentum as trading models triggered sell orders. Fund managers running some of the biggest commodities funds in Europe said the sell-off was a healthy correction and could pave the way for further rises over the medium to longer term".
Lunedi 9 Maggio: Leggo solo ora l'articolo CNBC del 5/5 "Panic in the Pits: Silver Plunge Spreads to Oil, Copper", che mi sembra andare perfettamente nella direzione da me ndicata nel mio post: un effetto cascata che si estende alle altre commodities.
"A cascading crash in commodities beginning with silver a week ago spread to oil and copper as exchanges took steps to rein in speculation, economic data pointed to a global selloff and big name investors took profits. Silver was the first to crack five trading days ago and is now down more than 27 percent since its high last Friday, including a 10 percent drop today alone. The silver panic forced traders to sell other hard assets to raise cash, with the selling spreading to oil and copper over the course of the last two days. Oil fell below $100 Thursday, more than 13 percent from its high on May 2. Copper plunged more than 3 percent, extending losses from its high five days ago to greater than 7 percent. Selling in silver intensified this afternoon into the end of open outcry trading as traders borrowing on margin got a tap on the shoulder to pay up under the new CME requirements. Of all the declines, it was the participation of copper in the bloodbath that worried investors most".
Segnalo inoltre l'articolo CNBC 9/5 "Economist Says Demand Destruction Will Drive Oil to $90", in cui si sostiene che il prezzo del petrolio è destinato a diminuire durevolmente. Nell'articolo ciò viene spiegato in termini di minore domanda mondiale e di contrazione del PIL (GDP). A differenza di quato esposto nell'articolo, assisteremo invece - a mio avviso - ad un periodo di basso prezzo del petrolio e di ripresa della domanda globale (-> inflazione).
"The commodities market witnessed a volatile five days last week with silver a major loser. Some analysts were predicting the losses for silver would lead losses in other commodities like oil, which saw the WTI contract drop below $100 a barrel. [...] Following losses for crude, Jessop believes the demand destruction is beginning to filter through as higher prices lead consumers and businesses to lower demand. “This process already appears to be well underway in the US, reflected in the latest GDP data and some of the business survey,” he added. [...] “We expect further falls in oil prices to be matched in lower prices for industrial metals. In part this reflects common drivers, namely weaker global demand and a rebound in the dollar.” “This should help to ease fears about global inflation".
Matteo Olivieri
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