Il vero ed il falso del downgrade USA

In nottata è arrivata la notizia del downgrade del debito sovrano statunitense, abbassato di un gradino al livello AA+ dall'agenzia di rating Standard&Poor's. La perdita della AAA, miglior giudizio in assoluto, ha creato un certo stupore negli USA perchè - nonostante se ne parlasse già da tempo - nessuno pensava che si trattasse di qualcosa di imminente. La stessa agenzia di rating ha poi confermato a negative le prospettive (c.d. outlook), con ciò alludendo al fatto che nuovi possibili declassamenti sono possibili.

Per la dichiarazione ufficiale di S&P's vedi CNBC 6/08 "S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating to AA-Plus":

"The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics," S&P said in a statement. "More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011," the statement said".

Nella varietà di commenti che in queste ore stanno apparendo, alcuni li trovo particolarmente interessanti. Eccone una selezione:

• CNBC 5/08 "Fed Officials Say It's Business as Usual": La FED in un comunicato si affretta a precisare che non si tratta di nulla di preoccupante visto che la decisione non causerà un aumento del capitale da destinare a riserva per gli intermediari finanziari:

  Federal Reserve officials publicly declared it was business as usual in the face of Standard and Poor’s downgrade of US government debt, but privately they acknowledged these were unchartered waters. Within 90 minutes of S&P’s decision, a joint release from US banking regulators declared that, despite the downgrade of US paper, there would be no change in the risk-weighting of treasury bills, bonds and notes or any paper guaranteed by the US government. In other words, banks do not have to post any additional capital against their Treasury positions. Regulators also announced that the treatment of US treasuries at the Fed’s discount window would be unchanged. Typically, the riskier an asset, the more collateral banks have to post to borrow from the Fed’s emergency lending facility.

• CNBC 5/08 "Week Ahead: Markets Will Sort Through Credit Downgrade": Dalle interviste ad alcuni intermediari finanziari, emerge un sentimento di "attesa", dovuto all'incertezza delle conseguenze che tale decisione avrà sui mercati finanziari. Alcuni sostengono che occorreràà valuare le mosse delle altre agenzie di rating prima di farsi un'idea più precisa delle reazioni dei mercati.
  

Markets in the coming week will digest the once unthinkable - the downgrade of the United States gold standard AAA rating - and the impact it will have on other credit ratings and investor confidence. The Standard and Poor's one-notch downgrade to AA plus came late Friday, just hours after European officials managed to convince markets they were at least working towards a plan to stop Italy from being sucked down by the credit crisis. The Fed also meets Tuesday, and traders have increasingly been looking for it to restart its extraordinary easing program or take other steps, though Fed watchers doubt such a move. "I did not expect this (downgrade) to happen this soon. This is something they gave the criteria on and I guess they stuck to it. I really thought they'd take the two stage approach and see how further (spending) cuts would come along," said George Goncalves, chief Treasury strategist for Nomura America.

• CNBC 6/08 "China Blasts US Debt Problems, Urges New Reserve Currency": In un comunicato ufficiale, il Governo cinese dichiara che la Cina ha ora tutto il diritto di reclamare una soluzione al problema del debito statunitense, come modo per salvaguardare la stabilità degli investimenti cinesi (primo creditore al mondo degli USA).

In a harshly-worded commentary by the official Xinhua news agency on Saturday, China gave its first official comments on the United States losing its gilded AAA long-term credit rating from Standard & Poor's. "China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," Xinhua said. China also urged the United States to apply "common sense" to "cure its addiction to debts" by cutting military and social welfare expenditure. "The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," Xinhua wrote. China also said further credit downgrades would very likely undermine the world economic recovery and trigger fresh rounds of financial turmoil.

La FED ha ragione: al momento non ci saranno alcune conseguenze sui bilanci degli intermediari finanziari, nè in termini di liquidità, nè in termini di necessità di maggiore capitalizzazione. Tuttavia, alcune tendenze nel medio periodo è possibile che vengano a galla, probabilmente in termini di aumento dei differenziali tra Europa e Stati Uniti e, forse, anche in termini di differenziali di tassi di interesse.

Per averne conferma, basta guardare alla curva dei rendimenti USA e tedesca: per esempio, su scadenza 10 anni, il titolo obbligazionario USA (rating AA+, grafico 1 qui sotto) ha un rendimento del 2.56%, mentre quello tedesco (rating AAA, grafco 2 qui sotto) del 2.35%.

Considerato che, con il declassamento del rating, il rischio del debito USA è aumentato, sia pur di poco, dovremmo attenderci una maggiore domanda di titoli tedeschi ed una minore di titoli USA, con conseguente diminuzione dei rendimenti tedeschi ed un aumento di quelli statunitensi.

Pertanto, a meno che non vengano risolte le debolezze strutturali dell'economia USA, evidenziate nella dichiarazione di Standard&Poor's, la conseguenze prevedibile saranno altri tagli al rating e, sotto quota AA-, le conseguenze sui bilanci societari diverranno inevitabili (per una tabella dei coefficienti di ponderazione, vedi il mio post 29/07/2011 "Trichet: «Scommetti sulla Grecia e perderai il tuo denaro!»".

AGGIORNAMENTI

Domenica 7 Agosto 2011: Il mio ragionamento trova riscontro in CNBC 7/08 "US Downgrade Likely to be Mixed Bag for Dollar: Analysts", in cui alcuni analisti si dicono convinti che il rendimento sui titoli USA dovrà aumentare per compensare il maggior rischio di detenere titoli statunitensi e/o il Dollaro USA si deprezzi per compensare il maggior rischio.

Short-term strength in the dollar versus Asian currencies could be seen as a buying opportunity, say analysts. For example, both Thomas Harr of Standard Chartered and Thio Chin Loo, Senior Currency Strategist at BNP Paribas, expect the greenback to weaken against Asian currencies over the medium-term. "We expect U.S. bond premiums to increase and/or the U.S. dollar to depreciate to compensate investors for the higher risk of holding U.S. assets," Chin Loo told CNBC. "We continue to favor stronger Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar."

Matteo Olivieri
>> Le informazioni qui contenute non (!) costituiscono sollecitazioni ad investire.

Crisi internazionale: a che punto siamo?

Cosenza (Italy),  5 Giugno 2011

Il Prof. Roubini (NYU) ha recentemente sintetizzato l'argomento con una frase impeccabile: la crisi è cominciata con un livello elevato di debito privato ed ora abbiamo troppo debito pubblico. Talmente elevato, che alcuni paesi hanno perso la capacità di accedere ai mercati, e devono ricorrere ad aiuti sovranazionali per ripagare i propri debiti. Ma chi pagherà questi debiti, se un giorno anche gli organismi sovranazionali (BCE, FMI, ecc.) dovessero avere dei problemi?

Nouriel Roubini ...The crisis started with too much private debt and then we socialized the losses and now we have too much public debt and so these sovereign have lost market access and are now being bailed out by super nationals Greece Ireland Portugal are being bailed out by the IMF ECB EFSF EU you name it , but you cannot kick the can down the road from these stock or public debt from private to public to sopra national no one is going to come from the moon or Mars to bailout the IMF or the ECB if the debt is too much and you cannot grow yourself out of that problem, if you cannot save yourself out of the debt problem and if you cannot inflate yourself out of that problem because the ECB is not going to allow inflation ..then there is only one solution debt restructure and debt reduction done in orderly and market friendly oriented way ...

Il problema posto  è rilevante, ma finora non è stato seriamente preso in considerazione a livello politico: basti pensare, per esempio, al nuovo piano di salvataggio per la Grecia che - a quanto pare - non sarà mai in grado di poter ripagare il debito puntando solo su taglio dei consumi interni e aumento della tassazione (vedi Bloomberg 4/6 "EU Preparing New Rescue Package for Greece"):

European Union officials will focus on preparing a new aid package for Greece that includes a“voluntary” role for investors after the EU and theInternational Monetary Fund approved the fifth installment of Greece’s 110 billion-euro ($161 billion) bailout.
“I expect the euro group to agree to additional financing to be provided to Greece under strict conditionality,”Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said after meeting with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in Luxembourg on June 3. “This conditionality will include private-sector involvement on a voluntary basis.”
Papandreou agreed to 78 billion euros in additional austerity measures and asset sales through 2015 to secure the 12 billion-euro bailout payment and meet conditions for receiving an additional rescue package. He agreed to make “significant”cuts in public-sector employment and establish an agency to manage accelerated asset sales, according to a statement released in Athens on June 3. The plan is fueling popular opposition and protests across Greece.
Greek bonds gained on the prospect of a new aid plan, with the yield on the country’s two-year notes falling 172 basis points yesterday to 22.8 percent, the lowest since April 20. The agreements came at the end of a week when Greece’s fiscal crisis worsened enough for Moody’s Investors Service to raise the probability of a default to 50 percent.
‘Debt Problem’
“The current discussions over the Greek debt problem have arisen mostly because of a realization that Greece won’t be able to raise money through normal bond issuance in 2012,” said Justin Knight, an analyst at UBS AG in London. “The choice for policy makers is one between funneling more aid funds into Greece to avoid default next year and restructuring debt now so that funds due to be paid to Greece under the current plan can last longer.”
A year after the rescue that aimed to stop the spread of the debt crisis, Greece remains mired in a third year of recession, shut out of financial markets and saddled with the biggest debt load in the euro’s history. Ireland and Portugal followed in seeking bailouts and Greece now needs a second rescue package to avoid the euro area’s first sovereign default.
Under the original rescue, Greece was due to sell 27 billion euros of bonds next year. EU leaders and Papandreou have acknowledged that a return to markets won’t be possible with Greece’s 10-year debt yielding 16 percent, more than twice the level at the time of the bailout. The EU is looking to close that funding gap through new loans and bondholders’ willingness to roll over Greek debt, EU officials have said.
IMF Funds
Europe’s financial leaders needed to hammer out a revised Greek package to persuade the IMF to pay its share of the 12 billion-euro tranche originally due in June. The IMF had indicated that it would withhold its 3.3 billion-euro piece unless the EU comes up with a plan to close Greece’s funding gap for 2012. The EU-IMF statement said the full payment would be made in early July.
The Washington-based lender provided 30 billion euros of Greece’s original loans, along with a third of the loans since granted to Ireland and Portugal.
Policy makers have in recent days narrowed in on bond rollovers as a pillar of any new aid package. The step would be favored by the European Central Bank, according to two officials familiar with the situation, as it would reduce the risk of any agreement being classified as a default. Investors may be given preferred status, higher coupon payments or collateral, said two other EU officials familiar with the situation. EU leaders are due to meet in Brussels on June 23-24 to approve a plan.
Spending Cuts
About 55 percent of investors in Greek government bondswould likely roll over holdings of securities maturing through 2013 to help the nation manage its budget deficit, according to ING Groep NV.
Euro-region governments have reached a tentative agreement on a package in which the nation’s private-sector creditors will contribute about 30 billion euros, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing unidentified senior euro-zone officials. The process of exchanging current debt for longer maturity replacements might begin as soon as July, the Journal said.
Papandreou is promising 6.4 billion euros of spending cuts this year, another 22 billion euros up to 2015, and 50 billion euros in sales of assets including Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA (HTO) and Public Power Corp SA. The pledges aim to get the deficit down to 7.5 percent of gross domestic product and were key to securing the fifth bailout payment. Papandreou is facing a backlash against the additional measures at home.
Market ‘Turn’
Members of the PAME labor union took over the Finance Ministry offices in central Athens yesterday, preventing employees from entering the building. They hung a banner from the roof calling for a general strike to oppose the measures.
A group of 16 lawmakers from Papandreou’s Pasok party this past week sent the premier a letter asking for a discussion of the austerity process. Papandreou will present the plan to lawmakers and his Cabinet in the new week. Workers at state-owned companies are organizing a 24-hour strike on June 9.
Moody’s downgraded Greece to Caa1, on a par with Cuba, and raised the nation’s risk of default on June 1 after policy makers considered asking investors to reinvest in new Greek debt when existing bonds mature. The move prompted Greek 10-year bonds to fall to the lowest since January.
‘New Territory’
“When more details will be available and we will get declarations that a deal has been reached, we might see a turn in bond markets,” said Chiara Cremonesi, a fixed-income strategist at UniCredit SpA in London. “The risk here is that they find a solution to fix the problem temporarily and don’t address it structurally.”
“The general perception is that Greece will head to some form of restructuring, and eventually the ratings will probably move to D,” said Brian Barry, an analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “For a sovereign rating to fall from about A to this level is new territory.”
Moody’s on June 3 cut the ratings on eight Greek banks, including the nation’s largest, National Bank of Greece SA. (ETE)
The austerity measures have choked growth, shedding doubts on whether Greece will generate the tax revenue to pay off its debts. The economy if forecast to shrink 3.5 percent this year after contracting more than 4 percent last year. Some economists including Nobel-prize winner Joseph Stiglitz said the country would be better off if it restructured its debt.
Buying Time
“Hopefully they will go forward with an orderly restructuring -- that is the only way to restore growth with equity,” the Columbia University professor told a conference in Sitges, Spain, on June 3. Austerity will not bolster growth,“but is only a step to the disorderly restructuring that will almost inevitably follow,” Stiglitz said.
The EU program is aimed more at protecting Europe’s banks, than helping Greece, he said.
The new aid and debt rollovers will give Greece more time to trim its budget deficit, though will do little to reduce its rising debt load. Greece’s debt is likely to mushroom to 157.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, the highest in euro history, the European Commission said on May 13.
The aid package may be more about buying time for Europe’s banks and other high-debt nations to prepare for the fallout of a Greek restructuring, said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London.
“This strategy of playing for time is not without its merits,” he said in a note to investors on June 3. “It buys a number of the other Europeans time to put their own house in order and pursue their programs of fiscal consolidation. Time hopefully will also help Europe’s banks provision against future losses on sovereign debt. Finally and perhaps most critically, time also enables the peripheral economies themselves to implement fiscal reforms and return to a primary balance.” Juncker rejected the worst-case scenario. “It’s obvious that there will be no exit of Greece from the euro area,” he said. “There will be no default and Greece will be able to fully honor its obligations.”

Nel frattempo, anche gli USA stanno pensando ad un nuovo pacchetto di aiuti nei confronti dei proprietari di case, che ancora hanno difficoltà a ripagare i debiti contratti (vedi CNBC 4/6 "Delinquent Homeowners to Get Mortgage Aid from Government"):

The Obama administration wants to help more struggling Americans stay in their homes by reducing the amount they owe on their troubled mortgages, a top Treasury official said Saturday. "We are very definitely trying to facilitate more principal reductions," said Timothy Massad, Treasury's acting assistant secretary for financial stability. "It is a very important piece of the overall solution," he said. The administration is trying through taxpayer-funded programs to prevent homeowners from losing their homes. Nearly $50 billion has been set aside from the $700 billion bank bailout known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, to help distressed homeowners.
Persistently high unemployment and a weak housing market pose a threat to President Obama's re-election prospects next year.
So far, one of the programs has helped some 670,000 distressed homeowners win lower mortgage payments. But that has done very little to help the overall housing market, which remains depressed even as other parts of the economy have started to recover.
A glut of houses for sale, foreclosures, tight credit and little demand have impeded the housing recovery. Recent data showed that home prices dropped below the low seen in April 2009 during the financial crisis.

Come uscire da questa situazione? C'è chi avanza una strategia su 4 punti (vedi CNBC 3/6 "Cramer: These 4 Things Could Fix Market"), la maggioranza dei quali assomiglia molto da vicino alle osservazioni da me indicate in miei precedenti post:

There are four "cure-alls" that can get us out of this bad market, Cramer said Friday.  First, Cramer said stock prices may need to fall across the board. Should the Dow fall from 12,151 to 10,000, he thinks there would be a lot of buying opportunities. Second, Washington has to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling. Third, the price of oil needs to go down. He thinks that could happen should the exchanges raise margin requirements, as the silver exchanges recently had. Fourth, we need some indication that the Chinese central bank will stop raising interest rates. “Without one of these four cure-alls,” Cramer believes, “we are going to be in this horrible free fire zone with the worst option, the price fall, being the least palatable solution if you own stocks, but the most opportunistic one if you have a lot of cash when it happens.”

Matteo Olivieri
>> Le informazioni qui contenute non (!) costituiscono sollecitazioni ad investire.