Lo dico con grande umiltà: penso di essere uno dei migliori economisti al mondo!
Nel 2005 (vedi
qui) avevo predetto la possibilità di un collasso dell'architettura monetaria europea, sostenendo che si sarebbe arrivati ad una revisione del Trattato di Maastricht e del Patto di Stabilità europeo, altrimenti si sarebbe corso il rischio di trasformare l'Unione Europea in un meccanismo permamente di trasferimento di denaro da paesi arricchiti a paesi impoveriti. Per scongiurare ciò, ipotizzavo che sarebbero ritornate a galla vecchie proposte di soluzione del problema, tra le quali il ripristino del "gold standard", ovvero l'ancoraggio del tasso di cambio fisso al prezzo dell'oro.
In pratica, un terremoto epocale nel sistema finanziario internazionale, abituato oramai da circa 40 anni (era il 1973 per la precisione) a tassi di cambio variabili e alla piena convertibilità delle valute.
Eppure, ciò che solo pochi anni fa sembrava "fantascienza del passato", quasi un ritorno al periodo dei dinosauri...oggi sembra terribilmente attuale.
Per averne una prova, basta guardare al seguente articolo CNBC 1/9 "
Gold Standard Comeback Enjoys Support", in cui si dice che il numero di sostenitori di un ritorno al
gold standard sta aumentando di giorno in giorno, tanto più ci si rende conto dell'insostenibilità dell'attuale sistema finanziario internazionale.
Tra i principali vantaggi del gold standard viene richiamata dai sostenitori la possibilità di limitare l'offerta di moneta, l'inflazione e quindi di tenere maggiormente uniti i tassi di interesse internazionali.
An age-old idea — the gold standard — is attracting new fans, amid growing investor concern that enormous government borrowing is weakening the dollar and spark hyper-inflation. The day of realization is coming, James Grant, editor Grant's Interest Rate Observer told CNBC Thursday. "What can be said for the gold standard is that it is time tested. It has monetary properties. It worked imperfectly but consistently for a 100 years until it was interrupted," said Grant
The old standard, which fell out of use by the 1930s, was conceived to control money supply growth (and thus inflation and asset bubbles) by requiring currencies be backed by physical gold. The concept has gained new currency in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis wherein governments and central banks tried to stimulate economic growth through extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimuli. "The human society is going to recognize that current monetary arrangements are defective and are robbing us of the dynamism that this country has been known for," Grant noted.
According to Grant, under a gold standard, a given country can fix its currency to a given quantity of gold. However, in an event of a recession, governments would be powerless to print money under the gold standard.
"Under a proper gold standard the government would have to fund itself and the open market would not do it," he concluded.
The gold standard would limit the amount of debt the government could issue, Grant said.
"What we want is a monetary system that is objective, that we can understand, that has at its bottom as its root — something that we can recognize as money. Gold is recognized as money," he added.
AGGIORNAMENTI
Martedi 6 Settembre 2011: Come altro interpretare la notizia di oggi, secondo cui la Banca Centrale Svizzera (BCS) ha stabilito un livello massimo di apprezzamento del Franco Svizzero contro l'Euro, e di acquistare Euro in ammontare illimitato se l'Euro dovesse sendere otto quota 1,20 Franchi Svizzeri?
Vedi The Wall Street Journal 6/11 "
Switzerland Caps Franc"
The Swiss National Bank set a limit on how far it will let the Swiss franc rise against the euro, the bank's most aggressive attempt yet to rein in the soaring currency. The SNB said it would buy euros in "unlimited quantities" should the single currency fall below 1.20 francs, setting the stage for what could be a long battle by the bank to defend its action in the face of surging concerns about debt problems in the euro zone and the U.S.
The SNB said Tuesday that it would "no longer tolerate" the euro falling below the minimum rate. In a statement, it said it will enforce the limit with "the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities."
Questa decisione segue quella di Agosto, quando la BCS ha deciso di abbassare i tassi di interesse vicino allo zero e di inondare i mercati di liquidità aggiuntiva, nel tentativo di deprezzare il franco e di agevolare le esportazioni svizzere, che negli ultimi tempi hanno sofferto molto.
In August, the SNB slashed interest rates to close to zero and flooded the market with liquidity in an effort to pull down a franc that has threatened to choke off Swiss growth. The franc gained 27% between November 2010 and early August against the euro, with investors viewing Switzerland—with its strong growth and solid public finances—as a haven from the euro zone's festering debt crisis.
The SNB's August moves helped drive the euro nearly 20% higher against the franc, but in recent days a deteriorating outlook for the global economy and the euro zone had sent the franc higher again. That may have prodded the SNB to take further action, say foreign-exchange strategists.
Ecco il documento ufficiale della Banca Centrale Svizzera 6/9 "
Introduction of a minimum Swiss franc exchange rate against the euro":
Short statement by Philipp Hildebrand on 6 September 2011 with regard to the introduction of a minimum Swiss franc exchange rate against the euro
_________________________________________________________________
The Swiss economy has staged a remarkable recovery from the Great Recession. It has benefited from tremendous efforts by thousands of companies, employees, and decisive policy measures by the authorities.
International developments, however, have now caused the Swiss franc to appreciate a great deal within a short period of time. This has resulted in a massive overvaluation of our national currency. Switzerland is a small and very open economy. Every second franc is earned abroad. A massive overvaluation carries the risk of a recession as well as deflationary developments.
The Swiss National Bank is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below one Swiss franc twenty. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination. It is prepared to purchase foreign exchange in unlimited quantities. Even at a rate of one Swiss franc twenty per euro, our currency is still at a high level. It should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks demand it, the SNB will take further measures.
With today’s decision, the SNB sets foot on a challenging journey. We have to accept the fact that the costs associated with it might be very high. At the same time, doing nothing would almost certainly inflict tremendous long-term damage on our economy. With today’s measure, the Swiss National Bank is acting in the interest of the country as a whole.
Mercoledi 7 Settembre:
La riforma del Patto di Stabilità Europeo si avvicina. Nell'ultima settimana di Settembre la bozza di legge dovrebbe arrivare di fronte al Parlamento Europeo a Strasburgo (vedi
Comdirect 7/9).
Mi, 07.09.11 17:55
Reform des Euro-Stabilitätspaktes kommt voran
BRÜSSEL (dpa-AFX) - Die Verschärfung des Euro-Stabilitätspaktes rückt näher. Nach monatelangem Streit verständigten sich die EU-Ratspräsidentschaft - sie wird derzeit von Polen geführt - und große Fraktionen des Europaparlaments auf Grundzüge eines Kompromisses, hieß es am Mittwoch aus der Volksvertretung. Beim gesamten EU-Gesetzespaket zur Verbesserung der wirtschaftspolitischen Steuerung, zu dem noch andere Reformen gehören, gebe es aber noch strittige Punkte, teilte der SPD-Europaabgeordnete Udo Bullmann mit.
Das Paket, im Brüsseler Sprachgebrauch 'Six-Pack' genannt, dürfte in der letzten Septemberwoche von der Vollversammlung in Straßburg beraten werden, so Bullmann. EU-Währungskommissar Olli Rehn zeigte sich zuversichtlich, dass die Gesetzesvorschläge bald endgültig angenommen werden.
Mit der Stabilitätspakt-Reform drohen notorischen Euro-Schuldensündern in Extremfällen milliardenschwere Strafen. Die Staaten können nicht nur für überhöhte Defizite, sondern auch für zu hohe Staatsschulden zur Verantwortung gezogen werden. Umstritten waren lange Blockademöglichkeiten der Mitgliedstaaten im vorbeugenden Teil des Paktes. Der Kompromiss sieht nun eine zweistufige Prozedur vor, um potenzielle Defizitsünder zu disziplinieren.
Die EU-Kommission hatte die Gesetzesvorschläge vor einem Jahr vorgelegt, um neue Schuldendebakel à la Griechenland zu verhindern. Der Stabilitätspakt hatte sich in seiner bisherigen Form als unzureichend erwiesen - mögliche Geldstrafen gegen Sünder wurden nie verhängt./cb/DP/jkr
Quelle: dpa-AFX
Giovedi 13 Ottobre 2011: Ecco un altro articolo sul ritorno del gold standard. Ho deciso che comincio a catalogarli, siano essi positivi o negativi: mi sembra già rilevante che se ne torni a discutere (solo qualche hanno fa era imensabile). Questo è il secondo che incontro in circa due mesi. Staremo a vedere se le statistiche migliorano.
All the major countries in the world are in a race to debase their currencies in order to restart their economies. Either economic growth returns or—as some doomsayers predict—the 40-year run of fiat currencies ends. And if under this worst case scenario the solution was to return to the gold standard of the Nixon years, the price of bullion would be worth $10,000-plus, six-times the current price, according to Paul Brodsky, co-managing member of QB Asset Management company and a self-professed ‘Gold Bug.’
To be sure, a return to the exact terms of the Bretton Woods Monetary Agreement is a near political impossibility because of the traumatic devaluation in the U.S. dollar it would cause. Yet, a move away from debt-based currencies to a system somewhat based on hard assets is not out of the picture if the global economy doesn’t recover or policy makers don’t allow for a painful deleveraging, some investors say.
“Policy makers are holding a burning match,” Brodsky said in a speech to a packed crowd at The Big Picture conference Tuesday in New York. “Baseless currencies follow the tyranny of short-term politics and so shall this."
The country’s monetary base (currency in circulation plus bank reserves held at the Fed) has tripled to $2.68 trillion, following the completion of QE2. Dividing this monetary base by the approximate 261.5 million ounces gold the U.S. Treasury is believed to own gets Brodsky to the $10,000 an ounce figure.
While “politics are likely to intervene” to stop gold [GCCV1 1668.90 
-13.70 (-0.81%) 
] from skyrocketing to this destabilizing price, that doesn’t mean bullion can’t keep surging from current levels as the devaluations continue, said Brodsky.
The money manager’s comments were par for the course at The Big Picture conference, named after the popular blog run by Barry Ritholtz. The conference featured panels on high frequency trading, the impact of social networks and other contrarian topics one would never hear at a gathering held by a mainstream retail brokerage. Here, attendees were more likely to exchange twitter handles than business cards.
So no wonder that Brodsky’s gold prediction was among the most-talked about on the sidelines of this conference at the New York Athletic Club.
“Economic policy makers across the political spectrum have successfully maintained the debt-based monetary system since 1971,” said the money manager. “To do this they have had to marginalize the one competing currency capable of displacing it: gold.”
Sabato 15 Ottobre 2011: La proposta tedesca di riforma del Sistema Monetario Internazionale: introduzione dei controlli sui movimenti valutari e revisione dei diritti di prelievo speciali del Fondo Monetario Internazionale...praticamente un ritorno ad un sistema monetario antecedente ala II Guerra Mondiale. Cfr le dichiarazioni del Cancelliere Angela Merkel su Boersen-Zeitung 7/10 "
Merkel setzt auf Reform des Währungssystems", poi in parte riviste dal Ministro delle Finanze Schaeuble in FAZ 15/10 "
Schäuble für europäische Fiskalunion":
Deutschland trug als Vorsitzender einer G-20-Arbeitsgruppe (zusammen mit Mexiko) auch seine Vorstellungen für eine Reform des Währungssystems vor. Kapitalverkehrskontrollen sollten nur „als allerletztes Mittel, temporär und multilateral überwacht“ eingesetzt werden, sagte Schäuble. Die lokalen Anleihe- und Kapitalmärkte müssten für die Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer ausgebaut werden, damit diese Länder von den Schwankungen der internationalen Märkte weniger abhängig sind. Bis zu einer Öffnung neuer Währungen wie dem chinesischen Yuan für die Berechnung der Sonderziehungsrechte sei noch „ein Stück Weg“ zurückzulegen, sagte Schäuble. Unter anderem wird der Yuan nicht frei gehandelt und China verfügt nicht über eine unabhängige Notenbank.
Matteo Olivieri
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