Cosenza (Italy), 3 Ottobre 2010
Davanti a noi ancora un'altra settimana movimentata, con molto nervosismo e segnali confusi dai mercati in cerca di una chiara direzione di investimento, mentre incombono sempre possibili nuovi interventi sia della Banca del Giappone che della Federal Reserve USA.
Se i mercati verranno lasciati liberi di agire, ecco quello che si dovrebbe osservare durante la settimana:
- Apprezzamento del Dollaro USA nei confronti dell'Euro in Gran Bretagna, Australia (segnali contrastanti invece in Svizzera e Giappone);
- Apprezzamento del Dollaro USA nei confronti dello Yen giapponese in Europa;
- Deprezzamento dell'Euro nei confronti dello Yen in Australia (segnali contrastanti invece in USA);
- Apprezzamento dell'Euro nei confronti del Dollaro Australiano in Giappone (segnali contrastanti invece in USA; deprezzamento in Gran Bretagna);
- Apprezzamento dello Yen giapponese nei confronti del Dollaro Australiano in Europa;
- Apprezzamento del Dollaro USA nei confronti del Dollaro Australiano in Europa.
Se le previsioni si confermeranno vere, probabilmente non ci saranno altri interventi della Banca del Giappone in settimana. Infatti, lo Yen sembra destinato a deprezzarsi spontaneamente nei confronti di Euro e Dollaro USA, dopo i massimi raggiunti nelle ultime settimane di Settembre. Interessante notare che lo Yen sembra essere ora disallineato rispetto al Dollaro Australiano, per cui forse sarebbe possibile ipotizzare un nuovo intervento in settimana della Banca del Giappone solo se le dimensioni degli scambi tra Yen e Dollaro australiano risultassero particolarmente rilevanti.
Se tuttavia l'apprezzamento del Dollaro USA è causa - come sembra - di uscite finanziarie dagli Stati Uniti, a questo punto potrebbe forse dirsi più probabile un nuovo intervento FED di quantitative easing (vedi nota 1).
AGGIORNAMENTI:
Lunedi 4 Ottobre 2010:
Primo importante risultato della giornata è l'apprezzamento del Dollaro USA sull'Euro. Ancora venerdi le agenzia di stampa davano l'Euro ai massimi da Marzo, mentre dal sito LEAF segnalavo un probabile deprezzamento (vedi nota 2).
Al momento 5 delle 6 previsioni da me fatte si stanno avverando (pari a 83.3%) ; unica anomalia il cambio Dollaro USA/Yen giapponese, che pur aveva fatto registrare un improvviso apprezzamento a inizio mattinata (vedi nota 3).
Martedi 5 Ottobre 2010:
Nella notte due importanti eventi: la Banca del Giappone ha - a sorpresa - deciso nuove misure di acquisto di titoli obbligazionari, immettendo sul mercato circa 60 miliardi di Dollari USA (vedi nota 4), e la decisione della Reserve Bank of Australia di lasciare invariato il costo del denaro (vedi nota 5). In particolare, anche questa seconda decisione è stata definita una "sorpresa", anche se da questo blog avevo più volte affermato che ogni ulteriore aumento dei tassi di interessi australiani avrebbe aggravato la sua situazione di maggiori flussi di capitali.
Al momento 5 delle 6 mie previsioni sono verificate (pari a 83.3%): a differenza di ieri, l'unica anomalia è il cambio Euro/Dollaro USA, anche se ciò ha un senso: infatti, una diminuzione dei tassi di interesse giapponesi causa un maggior deflusso di capitali dal Giappone soprattutto vero l'Europa, aggravando nel complesso - a mio avviso - la deflazione interna attraverso il tentativo di investire all'estero, e spostando di fatto nel tempo il problema di come impiegare adeguatamente la liquidità in eccesso.
La decisione della Banca del Giappone accresce la tendenza al (temporaneo) deprezzamento dello Yen già in corso sui mercati, e potrebbe essere interpretato forse come il tentativo di prendere del vantaggio ulteriore sulle altre valute.
Un ulteriore elemento di analisi emerge dall'articolo Bloomberg del 5 Ottobre (vedi nota 6), in cui si afferma che così facendo la Banca del Giappone sta "gonfiando" il proprio bilancio. Questo suggerisce sia che i profitti medi delle aziende giapponesi stanno diminuendo, sia che il valore degli attivi patrimoniali giapponesi (inclusa la Banca del Giappone) stanno diminuendo, con effetti a catena del tipo restrizione del credito (vedi nota 7).
Mercoledi 6 Ottobre 2010:
Chissà se il terremoto di oggi sui merati valutari sia addebitabile più al recente intervento di lunedi della Banca del Giappone di intervenire acquistando obbligazioni governative e di aziende giapponesi, oppure le dichiarazioni fatte al Financial Times dal Direttore del Fondo Monetario Internazionale, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, secondo il quale il Mondo sarebbe sull'orlo di una nuova versione di "svalutazioni competitive" (come quelle che si verificarono in Europa nel periodo precedente la Prima Guerra Mondiale, ndr) (vedi nota 8). Un uso politico delle valute metterebbe a rischio - sostiene Straus-Kahn - la domanda globale, nonchè la stabilità dell'economia mondiale nel lungo periodo.
Anche molto critico il commento del Premio nobel per l'Economia Joseph Stiglitz, secondo il quale sono proprio la FED e la BCE i principali responsabili di questa situazione, poichè con la loro politica monetaria estremamente "accomodante", stanno portando il Mondo verso il caos (vedi nota 9).
Inutile dire che nei miei post su questo blog ho più volte messo in risalto questo pericolo, che adesso viene chiaramente espresso anche da fonti istituzionali, che indicano tuttavia come soluzione un apprezzamento della valuta cinese (vedi nota 10).
Non si deve infatti dimenticare che un apprezzamento della valuta cinese significherebbe vincolare la Cina ad una situazione deflazionaria, con conseguente diminuzione dei costi di produzione, e ulteriore accelerazione delle esportazioni.
In ogni caso emerge una grave falla nella diplomazia economica internazionale, che non risulta in grado di trovare un accordo su come agire. Ancora una volta la Storia ci mostra come nel momento della difficoltà, emergono i nazionalismi (vedi nota 11).
Dopo le vicende di oggi, solo 2 previsioni su 6 riultano confermate (pari al 33.3%), ovvero Euro/Dollaro Australiano e Dollaro Australiano/Yen giapponese.
Giovedi 7 Ottobre 2010:
A giudicare dall'andamento dei tassi di cambio delle ultime 48 ore, ci sarebbe da dire che l'intervento di lunedi della Banca del Giappone ha ottenuto i risultati opposti a quelli sperati: ulteriore apprezzamento dello Yen sia nei confronti del Dollaro USA che dell'Euro, invece che un suo deprezzamento.
Al momento solo 2 delle 6 previsioni da me fatte si stanno averando (pari a 33.35): tuttavia, la tendenza in atto nelle ultime 48 ore sembra essere oramai per gran parte riassorbita e i mercati potrebbero ritornare presto al corso normale.
Alcune notizie di stampa sembrano confermare queste indicazioni:
- La Banca d'Inghilterra si dice in dubbio se autorizzare nella seduta di domani nuove misure di quantitative easing (cfr. CNBC 7 Ottobre "Bank of England Not So Sure About Monetary Easing");
- La BCE sembra orientata più che mai a garantire che i tassi di cambio delle valute internazionali riflettano i "fondamentali dell'economia, indizio che forse anche nella BCE regna scetticismo riguardo a nuove forme di quantitative easing (cfr. Bloomberg 7 Ottobre "Trichet Opposes ‘Disorderly’ Moves as Euro Climbs (Update1)");
- Il gruppo G-20 che si riunirà a Novembre a Seoul sembra orientato a prendere provvedimenti per impedire guerre valutarie (cfr. Bloomberg 7 Ottobre "G-20’s Interventions Risk Protectionist Reprisals (Update2)");
- Anche il Fondo Monetario Internazionale nelle parole del Capo Economista Olivier Blanchard esprime parere negativo verso ulteriori misure di imissione di moneta nell'economia (cfr. CNBC 7 Ottobre "Easing to Help? 'Don't Fool Ourselves': IMF Chief Economist") (vedi nota 11);
- Infine, anche nella comunità finanziaria pare affermarsi un consenso riguardo alla possibile inefficacia di nuovi interventi della banche centrali. Il più recente contributo è di Mohamed El-Erian, Co-Amministratore Delegato di PIMCO, il gigante dei fondi di investimento statunitensi (cfr. CNBC 7 Ottobre "More Fed Action Coming, But it May Not Help: El-Erian").
La giornata di oggi è ancora dominata dal tema "guerra valutaria", ma mi pare che le carte in tavola stiano lentamente cambiando. Le dichiarazioni rassicuranti dei giorni scorsi stanno lasciando il posto a visioni più realistiche del problema, e riportano alla ribalta la fondatezza delle considerazioni da me fatte tempo addietro sulla base del cosidetto "impossible trinity": i mercati si stanno lentamente chiudendo e innalzando nuovi controlli sui movimenti di capitale. Alla lunga però le Banche Centrali perderanno l'indipendenza della politica monetaria.
Ecco alcune conferme tratte dalla stampa internazionale:
- Comdirect 7 Ottobre "Brasilien stemmt sich gegen Real-Aufwertung" (vedi nota 13): il Governo del Brasile ammette ora che sta pensando ad un aumento dell'imposta per afflussi di capitali esteri in titoli a reddito fisso, in modo da frenare il continuo apprezzamento del Real brasiliano nei confronti del Dollaro USA;
- Comdirect 8 Ottobre "IfW-Präsident Snower warnt Wirtschaftsmächte vor Währungskrieg": il Presidente del prestigioso Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germania) avverte che la strategia di guerra valutaria a livello globale è destinata al fallimento nel lungo termine, per i costi economici ed i disaccordi politici che questa creerebbe. "Il pericolo rappresentato da questa guerra valutaria per l'economia mondiale è grande, perchè potrebbe aumentare la pressione per il protezionismo" ha aggiunt il Prof. Snower;
- The Wall Street Journal 7 Ottobre "Two Fed Officials Speak Out Against Stimulative Action": due membri della FED, il Presidente FED di Kansas City Thomas Hoenig (membro votante) e il Presidente FED di Dallas Richard Fisher (membro non votante) si sono detti contrari a nuovi acquisti di titoli da parte della Banca Centrale USA poichè il mercato è già intasato di liquidità e ulteriori mezzi finanziari non servirebbero a mettere in moto il processo di investimenti (vedi nota 14). Ogni ulteriore azione di quantitative easing porterebbe la FED su livelli senza precedenti di intervento nel processo politico e legislativo, ben oltre il tradizionale mandato di stabilità monetaria, ha aggiunto il Presidente Fisher.
Nel frattempo la Banca del Giappone si dice ancora pronta ad intervenire se le circostanze lo richiedessero, anche se gli interventi dal 15 Settembre ad oggi non sono riusciti ad invertire la tendenza all'apprezzamento dello Yen (vedi nota 15).
Guardando alla settimana nel suo complesso si notano alcune interessanti tendenze: i cambi Euro/Dollaro/USA, Sterlina inglese/Dollaro USA, Dollaro Neozelandese/Dollaro USA e Dollaro Australiano/Dollaro USA, che fino a metà settimana mostravano andamenti poco correlati tra di loro, mentre a partire da mercoledì (cioè a seguito dell'intervento sui mercati della Banca del Giappone) hanno cominciato a muoversi praticamente all'unisono.
Ciò si può ben cogliere dai seguenti grafici (il primo riferito ai movimenti dell'intera settimana, il secondo ai movimenti della sola giornata di oggi; dati ore 6pm, +1GMT).
E' forse un segno che è cominciata una "crociata anglosassone" contro le economie asiatiche?
L'intervento della Banca del Giappone ha mandato un pò in fumo le previsioni da me fatte, che fino allo scorso mercoledi si avveravano per l'83.3%. A conclusione di settimana la percentuale è tuttavia crollata, attestandosi alla fine ad un magro 16.6%. Maggiori dettagli nell'infografica qui in basso.
A tal proposito voglio citare solo l'articolo della Reuters del 7 Ottobre "Analysis: Investors caught in currency war crossfire", in cui si paragonano gli investitori che cercano di difendere i propri portafogli a soldati armati solo di coltelli in una guerra che si svolge a colpi di bazooka...a buon intenditor, poche parole!
NOTE:
1) Bloomberg 2 Ottobre "Fed Debates Easing Tools as Dudley Says Further Steps Warranted" sembra possibilista su nuovi acquisti di bond da parte della FED, volti a immettere liquidità sui mercati. "[...] New York Fed president William Dudley said yesterday. His comments, following Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s statement on Sept. 30 that the Fed has a duty to aid the economy, indicate that the outlook has weakened enough for action, said former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer. Dudley, vice chairman of the Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee, said additional securities purchases can have a “significant” effect on the economy. [...] Dudley said that $500 billion of purchases, for example, would add as much stimulus as reducing the Fed’s benchmark rate 0.5 percentage point to 0.75 percentage point, depending on how long investors expect the Fed to hold the assets. Officials can’t lower the rate further because it’s already close to zero".
2) Comdirect 1 Ottobre "Devisen: Euro klettert auf höchsten Stand seit März": "NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) Der Euro ist am Freitagabend mit 1,3780 US-Dollar auf den höchsten Stand seit Mitte März geklettert. [...]. 'Es handelt sich vor allem um eine Schwäche des US-Dollar', sagte Andreas Ertl, Devisenexperte vom Bankhaus M.M. Warburg & Co. Die erwarteten weiteren Maßnahmen der US-Notenbank zur Stützung der US-Konjunktur hätten den Dollar erneut belastet. Aussagen des Chefs der regionalen US-Notenbank, William Dudley von New York hätten diese Erwartungen am Markt verstärkt. Die derzeitig hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und die niedrige Inflation in den USA seien 'absolut inakzeptabel', sagte Dudley".
3) Reuters 4 Ottobre "Dollar Edges Up as Bets on Weakness Look Crowded": "Given these risks, analysts said investors were likely to trim some of their short dollar positions even though many in the market expect the prospect of more U.S. quantitative easing will continue to hurt the currency. "The market has a substantial short dollar position and when you're going into a big data week, you wonder whether the positioning risk is worth it at this juncture," said Paul Mackel, director of currency strategy at HSBC".
4) Reuters 5 Ottobre "Bank of Japan Reverts to Zero Rates in Surprise Move": "The Bank of Japan on Tuesday effectively reverted to zero interest rates on growing signs the strong yen is hurting a fragile economy, surprising markets and preceding the Federal Reserve in stepping up its expansionary monetary policy. The central bank also decided to set up, as a temporary measure, a 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) fund to buy assets ranging from government bonds and short-term government securities to commercial paper and corporate bonds, and will also accept another 30 trillion yen of those assets as collateral under a loan scheme. The BOJ said it would guide the overnight call rate at a range of zero to 0.1 percent, against the previous target of 0.1 percent. It also pledged to keep rates effectively at zero until prices were seen stabilizing".
5) Reuters 5 Ottobre "Australia Surprises by Keeping Rates Steady at 4.5%": "Australia's central bank kept its key cash rate steady at 4.5 percent on Tuesday, a surprise to many given policy makers recently warned that rates would have to rise to head off inflationary pressures. [...]. Speculation was intense the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lift its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in a pre-emptive strike against inflation. The view was reinforced by the latest retail sales figures, which rose for a sixth straight month in August, while the country boasted another hefty trade surplus and job ads hit a 20-month high".
6) Bloomberg 5 Ottobre "BOJ Pledges Near-Zero Rate Policy, Boosts Asset Buys (Update3)":
8) Comdirect 6 Ottobre "IWF-Chef warnt vor Abwertungswettlauf": "Der Chef des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) hat vor einem weltweiten Abwertungswettlauf an den Devisenmärkten gewarnt. 'Es beginnt sich die Ansicht zu verbreiten, dass Währungen als politische Waffe eingesetzt werden können', sagte Dominique Strauss-Kahn der 'Financial Times' (FT, Mittwochausgabe). Ein solches Vorgehen würde eine ernste Bedrohung für die globale Konjunkturerholung darstellen, warnte der IWF-Chef. Auch langfristig seien die Folgen negativ und könnten großen Schaden anrichten".
9) DIE WELT 6 Ottobre "Top-Ökonom – Notenbanken stürzen Welt ins Chaos": "Der Ökonom und Wirtschaft-Nobelpreisträger Joseph Stiglitz hat der der Europäischen Zentralbank und der US-Notenbank vorgeworfen, die Welt mit ihrer extrem lockeren Geldpolitik ins Chaos zu stürzen. Eine „Liquiditätsflut“ von EZB und Fed destabilisiere die globalen Devisenmärkte, sagte Stiglitz am Rande einer Konferenz an der Columbia-Universität in New York. „Die Ironie ist, dass die Fed für all diese Liquidität in der Hoffnung sorgt, dass sie die US-Wirtschaft beleben wird.“ Doch sie tue nichts dergleichen, sondern sorge für Chaos im Rest der Welt. „Es ist eine sehr seltsame Politik, die sie verfolgen“, fügte Stiglitz hinzu".
10) CNBC 6 Ottobre "Currency War? Why Countries Are Rushing to Devalue": "The global race to the bottom in currencies may be less a war than it is an inevitable reaction to the growth of developing countries and the need for export-driven economies to stay competitive. That's the view of experts who, while not wholly subscribing to the idea of a currency war, believe weakness in the US dollar, Chinese yuan and other major global currencies represents what could be the early days of a trade battle triggered by the strength of emerging markets. While countries have different reasons for devaluing their currencies, one of the common threads is a desire to keep up with the cost of goods from other export-driven nations in the global marketplace. This battle goes well beyond trade, however. A weaker dollar has pushed up commodity prices worldwide, with gold and other precious metals hitting record highs. Stocks and bonds also have been vulnerable to fluctuations in foreign-exchange markets".
11) CNBC 6 Ottobre "Markets must be allowed to drive currencies: Geithner": "Failure by global institutions to make a coordinated push to persuade countries such as China to let their currencies' value rise would endanger the global economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday. [...]. "This is a problem because when large economies with undervalued exchange rates act to keep the currency from appreciating, that encourages other countries to do the same," he said at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. [...]. "As America saves more, countries overly reliant on exports to us for their own growth will need to change their policies, or else global growth will slow and all of us will be worse off," he warned. "Countries that chronically run large surpluses need to undertake policies that will boost their domestic demand," he added. China has run persistently big surpluses on its U.S. trade for years, prompting angry U.S. lawmakers to pass a legislative proposal threatening tariffs against its imports unless the yuan's value is allowed to rise. Geithner sounded a note of frustration that so many countries were apparently willing to use currencies as a policy tool. "The main problem today is you have a set of emerging economies that both remain undervalued and are leaning heavily against appreciation," he said. "That's not a viable strategy for them, it's not a sustainable strategy for their trading partners, for the countries they compete with, and it's not good for the system as a whole." [...]. Geithner said that the problem of undervalued currencies was "inherently a multilateral problem" that would take a cooperative effort to solve in the form of an effective multilateral mechanism to push countries with big current account surpluses to abandon export-oriented policies. He suggested the IMF needed to be more forceful in surveillance of global currency practices and to push for "a cooperative rebalancing of policy" that would help sustain growth".
12) CNBC 7 Ottobre "Easing to Help? 'Don't Fool Ourselves': IMF Chief Economist": "Good quantitative easing or credit easing will give us a few basis points… that's nothing to ignore but it is not going to allow the advanced economies to grow much faster," he cautioned. Instead, what needs to be done is fiscal consolidation in advanced countries and external rebalancing — where net exports need to rise in the developed nations while the rest of the world reduce their trade surplus. [...]. What has to happen in general is a fairly wide appreciation of emerging market currencies, not to the same extend in all countries but in a number of countries. That is not happening on the scale at the speed at which we need it to have it happen," lamented Blanchard.".
13) Comdirect 7 Ottobre "Brasilien stemmt sich gegen Real-Aufwertung": "Brasilien stemmt sich gegen Real-Aufwertung. BRASÍLIA (dpa-AFX) - Brasilien stemmt sich mit aller Macht gegen die Aufwertung der Landeswährung Real zum US-Dollar. Dazu zählt eine seit Anfang der Woche geltende Anhebung des Steuersatzes für ausländische Kapitalzuflüsse in festverzinsliche Anleihen. Allerdings blieb der gewünschte Effekt zunächst aus. Der Dollar sank weiter und erreichte sogar ein Zwei-Jahrestief von 1,67 Reais. Seit Ende 2008 hat der Real damit zur US-Währung fast 50 Prozent an Wert gewonnen. Das Finanzministerium erwägt nun auf dem Geldmarkt den Ankauf von mehr als zehn Milliarden US-Dollar. Mantega will zur Jahrestagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) am Wochenende Vorschläge machen, wie die anhaltende Dollar-Abwertung gebremst werden kann. Brasiliens Finanzminister Guido Mantega, der kürzlich vor einem 'Währungskrieg' gewarnt hatte, dämpfte zu hohe Erwartungen. 'Es gibt Medikamente, die nicht gleich am nächsten Tag wirken. Manchmal beginnt man damit, Antibiotika zu nehmen, und es braucht dann eine Woche, bis Resultate eintreten.' Die Anhebung des Steuersatzes werde aber den kurzfristigen Kapitalzufluss verringern und Brasilien helfen, den Druck auf den Dollar zu vermindern. Im Kampf gegen einen weitere Verfall des US-Währung machte Brasiliens Nationaler Währungsrat (CMN) zudem bei einer außerordentlichen Sitzung den Weg frei für einen Ankauf von 10,7 Milliarden Dollar. Mit dem Geld sollen Auslandsschulden Brasiliens vorzeitig getilgt werden./hr/DP/bgf".
14) The Wall Street Journal 7 Ottobre "Two Fed Officials Speak Out Against Stimulative Action": "Mr. Fisher said more asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, are unwarranted because the U.S. economy is already flooded with liquidity. He said persistently high levels of unemployment and a lack of investment by businesses are largely the fault of "the fiscal incontinence of Congress and regulatory and rule-making excesses," rather than inadequate monetary policies. He maintained that uncertainty about rising federal taxes and the cost of complying with new government mandates are keeping businesses from spending and hiring additional workers. [...] In his speech, Mr. Hoenig sounded other notes of worry. He said talk of the Fed raising its inflation target "just horrifies me," in part because it raises the idea the Fed can fine-tune interests rates in a way that it actually can't. Meanwhile, Mr. Fisher said the further expansion of the central bank's balance sheet would move the Fed into an unprecedented role of intervening in the political and legislative process. "It implies that central banks should carry the load for stymied fiscal authorities—or worse, give in to them—rather than stick within their traditional monetary mandates and let legislative authorities deal with the fiscal mess they have created," he said in his speech".
15) Reuters 8 Ottobre "Japan Says to Continue Forex Intervention if Necessary": "Japan indicated on Friday that it would continue to intervene in foreign exchange markets when deemed necessary, on the eve of a Group of Seven meeting where tensions over competitive currency devaluation will be at the top of the agenda. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda also said that the intervention Japan conducted last month, its first in more than six years, was intended to stop excessive moves and was not a signal that Japan is prepared to conduct large-scale intervention to guide the yen to a specific level. [...]. Japan intervened on Sept. 15 by selling its currency for the first time in more than six years to stem its gains. The intervention did not reverse the trend of yen strength due on speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further.".
Matteo Olivieri
3) Reuters 4 Ottobre "Dollar Edges Up as Bets on Weakness Look Crowded": "Given these risks, analysts said investors were likely to trim some of their short dollar positions even though many in the market expect the prospect of more U.S. quantitative easing will continue to hurt the currency. "The market has a substantial short dollar position and when you're going into a big data week, you wonder whether the positioning risk is worth it at this juncture," said Paul Mackel, director of currency strategy at HSBC".
4) Reuters 5 Ottobre "Bank of Japan Reverts to Zero Rates in Surprise Move": "The Bank of Japan on Tuesday effectively reverted to zero interest rates on growing signs the strong yen is hurting a fragile economy, surprising markets and preceding the Federal Reserve in stepping up its expansionary monetary policy. The central bank also decided to set up, as a temporary measure, a 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) fund to buy assets ranging from government bonds and short-term government securities to commercial paper and corporate bonds, and will also accept another 30 trillion yen of those assets as collateral under a loan scheme. The BOJ said it would guide the overnight call rate at a range of zero to 0.1 percent, against the previous target of 0.1 percent. It also pledged to keep rates effectively at zero until prices were seen stabilizing".
5) Reuters 5 Ottobre "Australia Surprises by Keeping Rates Steady at 4.5%": "Australia's central bank kept its key cash rate steady at 4.5 percent on Tuesday, a surprise to many given policy makers recently warned that rates would have to rise to head off inflationary pressures. [...]. Speculation was intense the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lift its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in a pre-emptive strike against inflation. The view was reinforced by the latest retail sales figures, which rose for a sixth straight month in August, while the country boasted another hefty trade surplus and job ads hit a 20-month high".
6) Bloomberg 5 Ottobre "BOJ Pledges Near-Zero Rate Policy, Boosts Asset Buys (Update3)":
"The bank cut the overnight call rate target to a range of 0 percent to 0.1 percent, the lowest level since 2006, from 0.1 percent, it said in a statement in Tokyo. Policy makers will set up a 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) fund to buy government bonds and other assets, inflating the balance sheet at a time when U.S. and U.K. central bankers are contemplating similar moves".
7) Bloomberg 5 Ottobre "BOJ Independence Challenged as Deflation Continues (Update3)": "Shirakawa’s intransigence has incurred the ire of politicians pressing the bank to boost efforts to end deflation, which erodes corporate profits, makes debt harder to pay back, and enhances the yen’s lure by lifting its purchasing power. The GDP deflator, a gauge of prices across the economy, has fallen 14 percent since 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg". 8) Comdirect 6 Ottobre "IWF-Chef warnt vor Abwertungswettlauf": "Der Chef des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) hat vor einem weltweiten Abwertungswettlauf an den Devisenmärkten gewarnt. 'Es beginnt sich die Ansicht zu verbreiten, dass Währungen als politische Waffe eingesetzt werden können', sagte Dominique Strauss-Kahn der 'Financial Times' (FT, Mittwochausgabe). Ein solches Vorgehen würde eine ernste Bedrohung für die globale Konjunkturerholung darstellen, warnte der IWF-Chef. Auch langfristig seien die Folgen negativ und könnten großen Schaden anrichten".
9) DIE WELT 6 Ottobre "Top-Ökonom – Notenbanken stürzen Welt ins Chaos": "Der Ökonom und Wirtschaft-Nobelpreisträger Joseph Stiglitz hat der der Europäischen Zentralbank und der US-Notenbank vorgeworfen, die Welt mit ihrer extrem lockeren Geldpolitik ins Chaos zu stürzen. Eine „Liquiditätsflut“ von EZB und Fed destabilisiere die globalen Devisenmärkte, sagte Stiglitz am Rande einer Konferenz an der Columbia-Universität in New York. „Die Ironie ist, dass die Fed für all diese Liquidität in der Hoffnung sorgt, dass sie die US-Wirtschaft beleben wird.“ Doch sie tue nichts dergleichen, sondern sorge für Chaos im Rest der Welt. „Es ist eine sehr seltsame Politik, die sie verfolgen“, fügte Stiglitz hinzu".
10) CNBC 6 Ottobre "Currency War? Why Countries Are Rushing to Devalue": "The global race to the bottom in currencies may be less a war than it is an inevitable reaction to the growth of developing countries and the need for export-driven economies to stay competitive. That's the view of experts who, while not wholly subscribing to the idea of a currency war, believe weakness in the US dollar, Chinese yuan and other major global currencies represents what could be the early days of a trade battle triggered by the strength of emerging markets. While countries have different reasons for devaluing their currencies, one of the common threads is a desire to keep up with the cost of goods from other export-driven nations in the global marketplace. This battle goes well beyond trade, however. A weaker dollar has pushed up commodity prices worldwide, with gold and other precious metals hitting record highs. Stocks and bonds also have been vulnerable to fluctuations in foreign-exchange markets".
11) CNBC 6 Ottobre "Markets must be allowed to drive currencies: Geithner": "Failure by global institutions to make a coordinated push to persuade countries such as China to let their currencies' value rise would endanger the global economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday. [...]. "This is a problem because when large economies with undervalued exchange rates act to keep the currency from appreciating, that encourages other countries to do the same," he said at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. [...]. "As America saves more, countries overly reliant on exports to us for their own growth will need to change their policies, or else global growth will slow and all of us will be worse off," he warned. "Countries that chronically run large surpluses need to undertake policies that will boost their domestic demand," he added. China has run persistently big surpluses on its U.S. trade for years, prompting angry U.S. lawmakers to pass a legislative proposal threatening tariffs against its imports unless the yuan's value is allowed to rise. Geithner sounded a note of frustration that so many countries were apparently willing to use currencies as a policy tool. "The main problem today is you have a set of emerging economies that both remain undervalued and are leaning heavily against appreciation," he said. "That's not a viable strategy for them, it's not a sustainable strategy for their trading partners, for the countries they compete with, and it's not good for the system as a whole." [...]. Geithner said that the problem of undervalued currencies was "inherently a multilateral problem" that would take a cooperative effort to solve in the form of an effective multilateral mechanism to push countries with big current account surpluses to abandon export-oriented policies. He suggested the IMF needed to be more forceful in surveillance of global currency practices and to push for "a cooperative rebalancing of policy" that would help sustain growth".
12) CNBC 7 Ottobre "Easing to Help? 'Don't Fool Ourselves': IMF Chief Economist": "Good quantitative easing or credit easing will give us a few basis points… that's nothing to ignore but it is not going to allow the advanced economies to grow much faster," he cautioned. Instead, what needs to be done is fiscal consolidation in advanced countries and external rebalancing — where net exports need to rise in the developed nations while the rest of the world reduce their trade surplus. [...]. What has to happen in general is a fairly wide appreciation of emerging market currencies, not to the same extend in all countries but in a number of countries. That is not happening on the scale at the speed at which we need it to have it happen," lamented Blanchard.".
13) Comdirect 7 Ottobre "Brasilien stemmt sich gegen Real-Aufwertung": "Brasilien stemmt sich gegen Real-Aufwertung. BRASÍLIA (dpa-AFX) - Brasilien stemmt sich mit aller Macht gegen die Aufwertung der Landeswährung Real zum US-Dollar. Dazu zählt eine seit Anfang der Woche geltende Anhebung des Steuersatzes für ausländische Kapitalzuflüsse in festverzinsliche Anleihen. Allerdings blieb der gewünschte Effekt zunächst aus. Der Dollar sank weiter und erreichte sogar ein Zwei-Jahrestief von 1,67 Reais. Seit Ende 2008 hat der Real damit zur US-Währung fast 50 Prozent an Wert gewonnen. Das Finanzministerium erwägt nun auf dem Geldmarkt den Ankauf von mehr als zehn Milliarden US-Dollar. Mantega will zur Jahrestagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) am Wochenende Vorschläge machen, wie die anhaltende Dollar-Abwertung gebremst werden kann. Brasiliens Finanzminister Guido Mantega, der kürzlich vor einem 'Währungskrieg' gewarnt hatte, dämpfte zu hohe Erwartungen. 'Es gibt Medikamente, die nicht gleich am nächsten Tag wirken. Manchmal beginnt man damit, Antibiotika zu nehmen, und es braucht dann eine Woche, bis Resultate eintreten.' Die Anhebung des Steuersatzes werde aber den kurzfristigen Kapitalzufluss verringern und Brasilien helfen, den Druck auf den Dollar zu vermindern. Im Kampf gegen einen weitere Verfall des US-Währung machte Brasiliens Nationaler Währungsrat (CMN) zudem bei einer außerordentlichen Sitzung den Weg frei für einen Ankauf von 10,7 Milliarden Dollar. Mit dem Geld sollen Auslandsschulden Brasiliens vorzeitig getilgt werden./hr/DP/bgf".
14) The Wall Street Journal 7 Ottobre "Two Fed Officials Speak Out Against Stimulative Action": "Mr. Fisher said more asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, are unwarranted because the U.S. economy is already flooded with liquidity. He said persistently high levels of unemployment and a lack of investment by businesses are largely the fault of "the fiscal incontinence of Congress and regulatory and rule-making excesses," rather than inadequate monetary policies. He maintained that uncertainty about rising federal taxes and the cost of complying with new government mandates are keeping businesses from spending and hiring additional workers. [...] In his speech, Mr. Hoenig sounded other notes of worry. He said talk of the Fed raising its inflation target "just horrifies me," in part because it raises the idea the Fed can fine-tune interests rates in a way that it actually can't. Meanwhile, Mr. Fisher said the further expansion of the central bank's balance sheet would move the Fed into an unprecedented role of intervening in the political and legislative process. "It implies that central banks should carry the load for stymied fiscal authorities—or worse, give in to them—rather than stick within their traditional monetary mandates and let legislative authorities deal with the fiscal mess they have created," he said in his speech".
15) Reuters 8 Ottobre "Japan Says to Continue Forex Intervention if Necessary": "Japan indicated on Friday that it would continue to intervene in foreign exchange markets when deemed necessary, on the eve of a Group of Seven meeting where tensions over competitive currency devaluation will be at the top of the agenda. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda also said that the intervention Japan conducted last month, its first in more than six years, was intended to stop excessive moves and was not a signal that Japan is prepared to conduct large-scale intervention to guide the yen to a specific level. [...]. Japan intervened on Sept. 15 by selling its currency for the first time in more than six years to stem its gains. The intervention did not reverse the trend of yen strength due on speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further.".
Matteo Olivieri
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